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93L improving but not upgraded tonight. 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 110 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3285 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
19.2N 91.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Ese at 5 mph
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Archives >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas
Re: Too soon?
      Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM

Quote:

I notice NHC now has 3 areas of interest marked. I guess if you mark every circular cloud formation in the Atlantic basis, eventually you will have named enough systems to match your predictions at the start of the season.




Actually, if anything, the NHC has been perhaps a bit conservative this year with what Invests they have upgraded to an officiated tropical cyclone. There were so far two Invests I have tracked thus far which I would not have batted an eye had they been designated a TC officially and in real-time by NHC (one of them arguably qualifying as a TS, in fact).

In addition to the two Invests I mentioned above, there is reason to believe that Hermine was a Cat 1 hurricane into and/or just after landfall, and also that Alex had attained minimal Cat 3 heading into landfall. In fact, at 947mb, the min central pressure in Alex into landfall was at a level very often associated with Category 4 hurricanes.

Now as to the three features currently highlighted by the NHC for potential development, one, Invest 93L, is in reality probably already a tropical depression (and currently listed as a 90% probability of an upgrade within 48 hours - again, a very conservative call).

Another, Invest 92L, currently highlighted for a 60% chance of becoming a TC, is probably about spot on. While not yet a tropical cyclone, it has the kind of internal and external preconditions for TC development that easily warrant a forecast of about 60% chance of development over 48 hours.

The final area is flagged for a 10% chance of further development. Again, this seems reasonable given how soon this feature is likely to become entangled with an approaching front.



Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 12 2010 12:52 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Too soon? Doombot! Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? cieldumort   Sun Sep 12 2010 02:58 PM
. * * Unofficially TD5 became a Tropical Depression Thursday berrywr   Fri Aug 13 2010 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? berrywr   Fri Aug 13 2010 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Tazmanian93   Thu Aug 12 2010 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 12 2010 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Doombot!   Thu Aug 12 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2010 01:31 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 13 2010 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? MichaelA   Fri Aug 13 2010 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? ChrisS   Thu Sep 09 2010 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2010 12:18 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2010 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? MichaelA   Thu Sep 09 2010 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? ChrisS   Sat Sep 11 2010 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? cieldumort   Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? ChrisS   Sun Sep 12 2010 11:05 AM
. * * Igor's path ftlaudbob   Fri Sep 10 2010 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? MichaelA   Thu Aug 12 2010 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM

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