IR (ref) and WV (ref) is showing a marked weakening in the storm over the past couple hours, with ADT indicating a possible reduction in strength to around 120kts from the 130kts earlier. However, the last two IR frames are showing a significant increase in convenction surrounding the inner core. Additionally, the stadium eye is still extremely well defined and circular:
I suspect this has to do with interior dynamics changing in the storm. A secondary eyewall is forming, as seen in Microwave from several hours ago:
I suspect an ERC cycle will be well underway within the next 6 to 12 hours, with no additional strengthening until after then. However, after an ERC finishes, assuming conditions remain conducive to further strengthening, storms experience surface area growth as their structure becomes better suited for the size of the storm and the wind field expands as a direct result of the loss of the original eyewall. As the new eye contracts under favorable conditions, the winds will restrengthen, and often surpass the strength of the old storm.
Given that the storm is expected to be in favorable conditions for the next 48 hours, and the ERC is beginning at diurnal maxima, we could see no significant weakening of the storm and possible strengthening of the storm due to this ERC.
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