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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 231 (Idalia) , Major: 231 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 231 (Idalia) Major: 231 (Idalia)
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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean
      Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM

Alot of confusion still going on with the models coming out @ OZ Sunday morning here still. I still feel we cant take any model for granted until we get some kinda of broad low pressure system Monday night or Tuesday north of Honduras. I think we have to wait then @ least 24 if not 48hrs before we really can get a grasp. I would go along right now with the ECMWF only cause the GFS has been really confused on what to make of this all.

From what we can tell, we will have a good trough digging down Mon-Friday into the SE U.S. Low pressure
in the NW carribean will be very broad and will have impulses inside the broad low that will then tele-connect with a frontal trough from the main trough over the S.E. United States as it digs down south of 30N to 20N and near 82-85W. The impulses will respond and move along the trough. Dry air will be on the back side of this trough over the central and northern GOM. How far east this trough makes it by Friday will determine who will see what. if your west of the trough, you will get a few light showers and high clouds, east of the trough and along the low pressure, you will get heavy amounts of rain, gusty winds and heavy rainfall amounts for 4+ inches.

Finally, again we don't know yet where this trough will set up and how fast the low pressure moves up along the trough and how deep the impulse will be, it may be just a impulse of lower pressure around 998mbs as subtropical storm moving NE getting sheared or it might be a little stronger around 990mbs with a good strong band out ahead and to its east (cause it wont be concentrated too much near the COC due to dry air to its west and shear). Still its 5 days out @ least, we will find out probably in 36hrs-48hrs what might happen in strength and placement. Disregard anything south of Cuba in the long range 5-7days as models are really having issues past day 4 right now.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* West Caribbean Disturbance MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM
. * * TD 16??? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 28 2010 10:11 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 28 2010 09:52 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 28 2010 09:51 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance MichaelA   Tue Sep 28 2010 08:34 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance Joeyfl   Mon Sep 27 2010 09:25 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance GoBigSurf   Mon Sep 27 2010 08:31 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance MichaelA   Mon Sep 27 2010 04:37 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 27 2010 04:34 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 27 2010 03:34 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 27 2010 02:34 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 27 2010 02:30 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance scottsvb   Mon Sep 27 2010 10:43 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance Owlguin   Mon Sep 27 2010 10:33 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance weathernet   Mon Sep 27 2010 07:38 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance berrywr   Mon Sep 27 2010 01:19 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance WesnWylie   Sun Sep 26 2010 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean WeatherNut   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean scottsvb   Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM
. * * Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Rasvar   Sat Sep 25 2010 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland OrlandoDan   Sat Sep 25 2010 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland berrywr   Sat Sep 25 2010 02:49 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew berrywr   Sat Sep 25 2010 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland cieldumort   Fri Sep 24 2010 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland k___g   Fri Sep 24 2010 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland hurricane expert   Fri Sep 24 2010 05:16 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew cieldumort   Fri Sep 24 2010 04:37 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 02:17 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 12:14 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 24 2010 11:20 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 10:55 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 24 2010 05:43 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew berrywr   Fri Sep 24 2010 01:48 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:25 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew WesnWylie   Thu Sep 23 2010 05:54 PM
. * * TS Matthew danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation Joeyfl   Thu Sep 23 2010 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 23 2010 01:39 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:51 AM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation M.A.   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:32 AM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:18 AM
. * * 95L maybe starting to get circulation Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2010 10:41 AM
. * * Re: The Caribbean Wave weathernet   Thu Sep 23 2010 08:36 AM
. * * The Caribbean Wave danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2010 09:40 AM

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