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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 232 (Idalia) , Major: 232 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 232 (Idalia) Major: 232 (Idalia)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance
      Mon Sep 27 2010 01:19 AM

Good evening....Is disturbance likely to be Subtropical or Tropical?

The disturbance in the Western Caribbean in the wake of Matthewis integrated into a larger area of low pressure which dominates a good chunk of the Western Caribbean and Central America and is not a separate entity as of this typing. There is a 300 millibar and higher anti-cyclone (upper ridge) over the remnant low or remains of Matthew near the coast of SE Mexico and the Bay of Campeche with outflow over the disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Winds aloft over the Western Caribbean are light however increasingly hostile as you move towards the SE USA..

The evolving pattern over the Eastern United States is quite complicated beginning with the upper cutoff low centered over the border of Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. It is forecast to be near the border of N AL and S TN in 24 hours and begin to fill and lift NE slowly in the days ahead; however a strong shortwave will dropping into the base of the trough and deepening the trough over the Eastern United States later in the week with this trough extending south and south-southwest to the Yucatan Peninsula. This trough will induce moderate shear all up and down the east coast and FL..

The system will gradually work itself north over the next several days. There is also the possibility we'll be dealing with two distinct systems. I can't rule out the system being tropical to start but becoming extra-tropical and moving up the coast as a non-tropical low or being absorbed by the larger non-tropical low that will form in advance of the upper low now over the Mid-South.

HPC & TPC have expressed low confidence and I share their concern. Mixing tropical and dynamic (baroclinic....temperature gradience over distance in an airmass) is complicated stuff given the depth of the longwave trough over the Eastern US for the next several days and beyond.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* West Caribbean Disturbance MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 27 2010 01:19 AM
. * * TD 16??? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 28 2010 10:11 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 28 2010 09:52 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 28 2010 09:51 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance MichaelA   Tue Sep 28 2010 08:34 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance Joeyfl   Mon Sep 27 2010 09:25 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance GoBigSurf   Mon Sep 27 2010 08:31 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance MichaelA   Mon Sep 27 2010 04:37 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 27 2010 04:34 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 27 2010 03:34 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 27 2010 02:34 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 27 2010 02:30 PM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance scottsvb   Mon Sep 27 2010 10:43 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance Owlguin   Mon Sep 27 2010 10:33 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance weathernet   Mon Sep 27 2010 07:38 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance berrywr   Mon Sep 27 2010 01:19 AM
. * * Re: West Caribbean Disturbance WesnWylie   Sun Sep 26 2010 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean WeatherNut   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Joeyfl   Sun Sep 26 2010 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean scottsvb   Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM
. * * Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean Rasvar   Sat Sep 25 2010 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland OrlandoDan   Sat Sep 25 2010 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland berrywr   Sat Sep 25 2010 02:49 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew berrywr   Sat Sep 25 2010 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland cieldumort   Fri Sep 24 2010 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland k___g   Fri Sep 24 2010 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Matthew To Stay Inland hurricane expert   Fri Sep 24 2010 05:16 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew cieldumort   Fri Sep 24 2010 04:37 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 02:17 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 12:14 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 24 2010 11:20 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 24 2010 10:55 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 24 2010 05:43 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew berrywr   Fri Sep 24 2010 01:48 AM
. * * Re: TS Matthew scottsvb   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:25 PM
. * * Re: TS Matthew WesnWylie   Thu Sep 23 2010 05:54 PM
. * * TS Matthew danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation Joeyfl   Thu Sep 23 2010 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 23 2010 01:39 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:51 AM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation M.A.   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:32 AM
. * * Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 23 2010 11:18 AM
. * * 95L maybe starting to get circulation Rasvar   Thu Sep 23 2010 10:41 AM
. * * Re: The Caribbean Wave weathernet   Thu Sep 23 2010 08:36 AM
. * * The Caribbean Wave danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 22 2010 09:40 AM

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