MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane Otto and the West Caribbean Invest 98L
Mon Oct 04 2010 07:13 AM
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4:00 PM CDT Saturday, 9 October 2010 Update
West Caribbean Invest 98L has been improving in structure quite a bit today, and a tropical cyclone could be forming this weekend. The National Hurricane Center earlier today put up a now seemingly conservative 30% probability of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours ("Code Orange") for this disturbance.
Invest 98L consists of developing low and mid level centers, which appear to be fairly well colocated, in the vicinity of 13N and 80W. Some curved convective banding is noted in the western half of the disturbance, and back-of-the-envelope real-time Dvoark Current Intensity may already be close to T1.5 or better.
Sea surface temperatures in this region are still quite warm, and shear is not prohibitive. Indeed, shear looks to be easing while the atmosphere is also moistening up (all this being more conducive for further development). Movement seems to be net-net generally to the west, after some earlier center of circulation jumps and/or meanderings.
Interests from central America to the Yucatan peninsula, and possibly also from Cuba and into the GOM, may wish to be on the alert for the potential tropical cyclone formation, and any watches and warnings that may be issued for these areas, as at this early stage, it is very unclear which direction 98L will ultimately take. On one hand, interaction with central America could ultimately cut its development short. On the other, 98L could begin edging more to the northwest, or even to the north in time, and thus spend a good deal longer over water. Models should start having a better handle on its future track by this time tomorrow.
-Cieldumort
11:00 AM EDT Friday, 8 October 2010 Update
Otto has been upgraded to a Hurricane, and will likely remain so through the weekend, it's path takes it far away from any land areas. It is expected to transition to Extratropical Monday and near the azores then.
The area in the west Caribbean still has about a 20% chance for development. It's best chance for development is probably late Monday, if it does at all. Those in western Cuba, Jamaica, and the Caymans will want to watch it the most. It isn't likely to affect the US.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Otto|17|17|2010|1|Otto}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|18|2010|2|98L}}
8:00 AM EDT Wednesday, 6 October 2010 Update
Otto continues to strengthen and has a shot at becoming a hurricane before hitting the worst of the shear, it will stay away from land until it becomes extratropical, where it may affect the Azores.
If Otto were to become a hurricane, it would likely be tonight or tomorrow, after which chances go down.
The area in the western Caribbean has a 10% chance to develop now, and it's most likely development period is Sunday or Monday.. If it does develop the most likely scenario is that it will slowly move into the Yucatan and rain. There is a slight chance it could get "picked up" by something further north that would bring it across Cuba, although most likely it will stay east of Florida, or most of the convection will anyway. It is what to watch over the weekend.
5:00 PM EDT Wednesday, 6 October 2010 Update
Subtropical Storm Otto forms.
{{StormLinks|Otto|17|17|2010|1|Otto}}
7:00 AM EDT Wednesday, 6 October 2010 Update
Subtropical Depression 17 has formed northeast of the Caribbean, it is expected to drift slowly north and northwest for a bit then race out to sea to the northeast. This system will very likely be no threat to land.
Subtropical storms tend to hand stronger winds away from the center, but they still do have some tropical like characteristics near the center. This system has a good shot at becoming purely tropical before hitting the bump to the east. It won't likely be anything more than a mid wind-range Tropical storm.
The western Caribbean continues to be an area to watch for next week.
{{StormCarib}}
6:30 AM EDT Tuesday, 5 October 2010 Update
Chances have risen for development of 97L, which peaks tomorrow, it is over the northeastern Caribbean sea bringing rainfall to the islands. It is still forecast to move away from the United States.
The western Caribbean may still have something in it next week, but the current pattern around the Gulf resembles more November than October this year, s
Original Update
So far the wave in the northeastern Caribbean (97L) has not developed, and conditions got worse for it as it approached the islands. It still has a chance to cause rainfall along the Caribbean islands, and still has a chance to develop, 20% now, but that improves later in the week. However any development is likely to recurve out to sea before it reaches the continental United States.
Another wave east of the Caribbean currently isn't being tracked as an invest area, but only has a 10% chance for development.
Activity from The west Caribbean won't likely be seen until next week.
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Oct 09 2010 05:24 PM)
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