MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida
Mon Oct 11 2010 08:35 AM
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7:00AM 18 October 2010
Watching 99L in the west Caribbean, 30% chance of development, may develop this week. Most likely it will move over land before developing.
{{StormLinks|99L|99|19|2010|1|99L}}
9:30PM 14 October 2010
Paula is moving due east tonight, staying along the northern coast of Cuba, it will continue to be affected by shear.
Meanwhile another area in the southwest Caribbean will need to be watched for mid-next week. It has a shot to become a large system, but likely to remain in the Caribbean for the time. Those in Nicaragua and Honduras will want to keep a close eye on it.
9:00AM 14 October 2010
Hurricane Paula is moving northeast slowly near the western tip of Cuba, it is expected to remain south of Florida. The Keys and South Florida will see some rain from the system, but not all the much.
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
Cancun Radar Recording of Paula approach (flhurricane)
{{StormLinks|Paula|18|18|2010|2|Paula}}
{{StormCarib}}
12:00PM 13 October 2010
Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for the Middle and Western Florida Keys. From Craig Key westward including the Dry Tortugas.
Paula is maintaining Category 2 wind speeds and has begun to turn slightly toward the NNE.
7:00AM 13 October 2010 Update
Hurricane Paula is a small, compact hurricane, with hurricane force winds only around 15 miles from the center, because of this and the strong mid level flow over Florida which likely would shear the storm are going to keep the system more of a worry for Western Cuba than the Florida Keys. In fact, any wind there is more likely from the pressure gradient to the north than from Paula itself.
This morning Paula is a good ways east of the Yucatan and Cancun, and they won't see all that much from it because it is such a small storm. It it likely to weaken as it gets further northward today.
On the current forecast track, Paula is likely to stay well south of Florida, enough that Key west may get a little rain from the system, but nothing more as Paula will likely be torn up or kicked back south if it attempted to get to close to Florida. In fact, the entire Gulf of Mexico and Florida is very hostile for tropical systems at the moment.
2:00PM 12 October 2010 Update
Hurricane Paula has been upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane. It is a relatively small hurricane, with strong winds around the center. Recon aircraft was in there recently and found the winds. Forecast on track remains unchanged from earlier.
7:00AM 12 October 2010 Update
Paula was upgraded to hurricane status overnight, but is a bit ragged on satellite presentation. The movement (or lack of) with Paula will likely keep it in the Western Caribbean all week, bringing extended ugly conditions along the eastern Yucatan and Belize.
Odds highly favor it staying out of the Gulf, those in Western Cuba, the Caymans, Belize, and the Yucatan have the most to watch from Paula. The Yucatan is under a hurricane warning. IF Paula gets picked up this week it will likely stay south of the United States, if it were to drift further north it would run smack into very high shear which would likely weaken the system. If it misses the first pickup conditions relax for a bit then pick up again when another front comes along mid next week or so. all this makes it highly unlikely that it will affect Florida.
The cone (well more like big circle) includes parts of south Florida, so it's worth watching, but currently chances are that Florida will not see anything from Paula. And if it did, it likely would be on the weak side.
5:30PM 11 October 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Paula has formed in the western Caribbean.
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Yucatan Mexican coastline from Punta Gruesa northward up to Cancun, including Cozumel.
Paula is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, and in fact is already on it's way with 60MPH winds. (Recon reported.
Those in the warning area will want to prepare.
Tropical storm warnings exist from Limon east in Honduras.
Paula is expected to stay in the general area of the western Caribbean all during the week and will have to be monitored for a while. Those in Western Cuba will want o monitor for changes as well. As of now the likelihood of a direct Florida impact this week or next is very low.
Those in Cancun and Cozumel will want to prepare for possibly prolonged nasty conditions.
Original Update
Otto is gone, and we are left with no tropical systems in the Atlantic, but one area in the Western Caribbean (tracked as 98L) that is bringing heavy rainfall to Nicaragua and Honduras now.
The steering currents in the area are almost nonexistent, so this will likely sit in the same general area all week. It is the same story as last week, it will either move into Central America or the Yucatan and rain itself out or meander around, and possibly have new "centers" form and eventually get kicked eastward and out. Tropical Development chances are around 60% today, and tonight or tomorrow still seems most likely for development.
Those in the Yucatan, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, Western Cuba, and the Caymans need to watch this system closely. If reformation occurs further north, then the Florida Keys and South Florida will want to watch for a possible "Backdoor" type system, although chances of that are very low right now.
Model tracks are next to useless right now. The most likely scenario is that it stays near Central America and then pushes off east late this week or early next week, and stays south of Florida.
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