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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge
      Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM

If you read the 5pm discussion on this storm the models have shifted west now then the east which they were.

All in all it will be a few days before we can say ANYTHING about where it is gonna go.And that means from Florida to texas to nowhere.Here is the 5pm part i am talking about.



Tropical Storm Richard Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2010




The best estimate of current motion is about 155/3. A trough over
the western Atlantic and northwestern Caribbean has been steering
the system slowly southeastward during the past day or so.
However... this trough is in the process of lifting out of the
area...which will allow a ridge to build over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the models are in reasonable agreement on the storm
eventually turning back toward the west in a day or so...they are
in rather poor agreement after that time due to varying ridge
strengths over the Gulf of Mexico. All of the forecast guidance has
shifted well toward the left...after moving toward the right
overnight. Given the erratic behavior of the model guidance...a
luxury the official forecast does not have...this is a low
confidence track forecast. The model consensus is actually now in
good agreement with the previous NHC track...and little change will
be made to the NHC forecast. The new 48-hour forecast point is
close enough to Honduras to warrant a tropical storm watch.

Edited by rgd (Thu Oct 21 2010 04:46 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Richard Forecast Lounge doug Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Richard Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Richard Forecast Lounge vineyardsaker   Thu Oct 21 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L MichaelA   Mon Oct 18 2010 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L LoisCane   Mon Oct 18 2010 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L doug   Tue Oct 19 2010 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L MichaelA   Tue Oct 19 2010 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Edski   Tue Oct 19 2010 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L weathernet   Tue Oct 19 2010 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L weathernet   Wed Oct 20 2010 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 20 2010 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L MichaelA   Wed Oct 20 2010 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Owlguin   Wed Oct 20 2010 03:10 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Wed Oct 20 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 06:30 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 07:04 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 07:29 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 08:28 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 10:35 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 11:21 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 11:25 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge Marknole   Thu Oct 21 2010 04:32 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge rgd   Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Thu Oct 21 2010 03:11 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Oct 23 2010 02:34 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Oct 21 2010 09:34 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Oct 22 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Oct 22 2010 11:56 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge new   Fri Oct 22 2010 12:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Oct 22 2010 12:55 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Oct 22 2010 02:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Oct 22 2010 05:33 PM

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