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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Richard Forecast Lounge
      Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM

As of the 11AM Richard Forecast Discussion #11, NHC notes that Richard is "strengthening quickly."

While not ideal, dry air entrainment has nearly come to an end, with shear also dropping to levels often associated with conditions that can favor rapidly intensifying cyclones. Environmental conditions for continued intensification are improving this weekend, and given that Richard is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it may keep having a tendency to respond fairly quickly to changes in its environment.

Richard has a window this weekend to strengthen more than currently forecast prior to landfall, and impact a small area significantly, depending on exactly where it goes, due to very high wind, and not just complications from rain.

This region is accustomed to very heavy rains during the summer and fall. In Belize City for example, October tends to be the wettest month of the year. As such, populations in this region may not be taken by surprise when a very heavy rain comes through. But residents may not be so prepared for a small, concentrated area of very high winds, which are likely to occur even with Richard not exceeding the current official forecast of about 70 knots around time of landfall.

This is definitely something those in Richard's forecast track may want to keep in mind when starting to make arrangements for the potential of a direct hit, which they should probably now be doing, just in case.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Richard Forecast Lounge doug Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Richard Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Richard Forecast Lounge vineyardsaker   Thu Oct 21 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L MichaelA   Mon Oct 18 2010 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L LoisCane   Mon Oct 18 2010 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L doug   Tue Oct 19 2010 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L MichaelA   Tue Oct 19 2010 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Edski   Tue Oct 19 2010 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L weathernet   Tue Oct 19 2010 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L weathernet   Wed Oct 20 2010 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 20 2010 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L MichaelA   Wed Oct 20 2010 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Owlguin   Wed Oct 20 2010 03:10 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Wed Oct 20 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 06:30 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 07:04 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 07:29 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 08:28 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 10:35 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Oct 21 2010 11:21 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 21 2010 11:25 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge Marknole   Thu Oct 21 2010 04:32 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge rgd   Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Thu Oct 21 2010 03:11 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Oct 23 2010 02:34 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Oct 21 2010 09:34 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Oct 22 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Oct 22 2010 11:56 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge new   Fri Oct 22 2010 12:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Oct 22 2010 12:55 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Oct 22 2010 02:42 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Oct 22 2010 05:33 PM

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