Quote: am really starting to worry about the potential of a major hurricane in the central Caribbean in just a few days
I'm right there with you on that. I would probably break down 91L's prospects roughly along these lines:
Top max sustained winds within 91L during the next 7 days (personal best guess odds):
Less than 39MPH: 5% 39 - 50 MPH: 10% 55 - 70 MPH: 25% 75 - 90 MPH: 15% 95 - 110 MPH: 25% Over 110 MPH: 20%
Or put another way, 95% odds of becoming a named storm, 35% odds of then maxing out as a TS, 60% odds of actually becoming a hurricane, and even 20% odds of becoming a major hurricane, within the next 7 days.
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