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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

cieldumort
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Posts: 2671
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L
Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM

Quote:

am really starting to worry about the potential of a major hurricane in the central Caribbean in just a few days

I'm right there with you on that. I would probably break down 91L's prospects roughly along these lines:

Top max sustained winds within 91L during the next 7 days (personal best guess odds):

Less than 39MPH: 5%
39 - 50 MPH: 10%
55 - 70 MPH: 25%
75 - 90 MPH: 15%
95 - 110 MPH: 25%
Over 110 MPH: 20%

Or put another way, 95% odds of becoming a named storm, 35% odds of then maxing out as a TS, 60% odds of actually becoming a hurricane, and even 20% odds of becoming a major hurricane, within the next 7 days.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Thu Oct 28 2010 10:44 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	weathernet	Fri Oct 29 2010 01:37 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	weathernet	Fri Oct 29 2010 02:55 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	berrywr	Fri Oct 29 2010 05:55 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	MichaelA	Fri Oct 29 2010 08:58 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Fri Oct 29 2010 10:11 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	doug	Fri Oct 29 2010 11:25 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	florida central	Fri Oct 29 2010 12:00 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Fri Oct 29 2010 01:59 PM
Unofficially "Tomas"	berrywr	Fri Oct 29 2010 02:49 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	MichaelA	Thu Oct 28 2010 10:55 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	MichaelA	Wed Oct 27 2010 06:47 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	MichaelA	Wed Oct 27 2010 08:15 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Thu Oct 28 2010 12:58 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	doug	Thu Oct 28 2010 11:23 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Thu Oct 28 2010 12:32 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Oct 28 2010 03:46 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	weathernet	Thu Oct 28 2010 07:17 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Thu Oct 28 2010 07:42 PM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L	cieldumort	Thu Oct 28 2010 07:02 PM

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