I took a look at the 29/12Z package this afternoon in-depth. The feature that stands out is the upper ridge that current resides in the extreme Eastern Caribbean and is parked right over the top of "Tomas". I'm shocked that NHC hasn't designated this system either Tropical or Subtropical given its satellite presentation. This upper ridge is expected to expand and remain across the entire Caribbean for the foreseeable future. The upper low currently at 23.0N and 69.5W is expected to lift out and shear immediately to the NW of the system will relax or at least shift farther away from "Tomas". Re-curvature will be in the Caribbean at some future date. I'm not going to speculate as to intensity; however as long as the upper high remains aloft over or near Tomas, Tomas may become a formidable hurricane for this late in the season. It is important to remember the calendar and what time of year it is. The spaces which a storm/hurricane must travel all few and far between given there will be dynamic (cold-core) lows aloft and adjacent frontal systems nearby and between these lows and highs aloft; shear.
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