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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2
      Sun Oct 31 2010 09:46 PM

Quote:

The last two advisories have shown weakening. What changed from the further stregthening forecast?




That's a very good question!

The NHC does a pretty good job explaining it during the 5PM Discussion:

Quote:

SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND
AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
(LINK)




In general, tropical cyclones benefit from air currents that do not disturb their cyclonic flow, and also that do not interrupt any anticyclonic flow that exists above them. The shear that the NHC speaks of is currently working against Tomas in this regard, as well as allowing some drier air to penetrate the system, which is further damaging to tropical cyclones.

Hope that helps!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tomas Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Oct 31 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 Rosy   Sun Oct 31 2010 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 cieldumort   Sun Oct 31 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 Rosy   Mon Nov 01 2010 09:47 AM
. * * Why Tomas Weakened - Analysis berrywr   Mon Nov 01 2010 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Why Tomas Weakened - Analysis MichaelA   Mon Nov 01 2010 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 MichaelA   Mon Nov 01 2010 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 31 2010 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge srquirrely   Mon Nov 01 2010 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 01 2010 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge weathernet   Mon Nov 01 2010 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Nov 01 2010 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 31 2010 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Oct 30 2010 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Oct 30 2010 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Oct 30 2010 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:06 PM

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