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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge
      Mon Nov 01 2010 06:08 PM

This morning, Tomas had decoupled with the low level circulation exposed and convection and mid-level vorticity well to the east; in fact, there were two thunderstorm complexes removed from one another and both well removed from the center of circulation..

5 pm ET discussion is out....I'm fine with their thinking.

Excerpt from the 2 pm Tropical Discussion....

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS NDICATE A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR. THE SAME PRODUCT DISPLAYS MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 24N. UPPER LEVEL MODEL DATA INDICATES A 70 KT JET-STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW GULF...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON ISLAND TO MARSH ISLAND RESPECTIVELY. THIS UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCES A SHORTWAVE THAT SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER E TEXAS...EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tomas Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Nov 01 2010 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 Rosy   Sun Oct 31 2010 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 cieldumort   Sun Oct 31 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 Rosy   Mon Nov 01 2010 09:47 AM
. * * Why Tomas Weakened - Analysis berrywr   Mon Nov 01 2010 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Why Tomas Weakened - Analysis MichaelA   Mon Nov 01 2010 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas now Category 2 MichaelA   Mon Nov 01 2010 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 31 2010 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge srquirrely   Mon Nov 01 2010 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 01 2010 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge weathernet   Mon Nov 01 2010 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Nov 01 2010 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 31 2010 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Oct 30 2010 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Oct 30 2010 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Oct 30 2010 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:06 PM

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