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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)

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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

weathernet
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Loc: Elsewhere

Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While
Tue Jun 07 2011 01:49 AM

Well, as most of us have posted, 94L clearly has lacked and continues to lack certain dynamics necessary for further development. Had the deep layer motion existed a couple days ago, so to allow the system to move ENE or NE, then the "net" shear would have been less impacting and perhaps a depression or weak storm might have formed under less formidable upper air conditions. In the face of the increasing sub tropical jet, it would just seem unrealistic to expect that any amount of consolidation might be adequite in building such an upper anticyclone that such long latitude westerlies would be rendered insignificant.

As far as Florida's parched lawns are concerned, we have certainly seen our share of unorganized training of deep Caribbean moisture over the years. On past occassions, over 48 hours of copious precipitation has meant widespread areas receiving 3-6 inches ( or more ) of rain. I hope i'm wrong, but am fearing that most of the low level moisture from 94L will simply pass to the south of most areas, while limited impact of increase in moisture, be mostly limited to a thickening Cirrus deck and perhaps very widely scattered light to moderate showers. Low level convergence will then play some role in what regions might receive some appreciable precip, but i'd not anticipate 2 or more inches over Lake "O" or other widespread areas of South/Central Florida. On the topic of "drought busting rains" ( mod's feel free to relocate this to a more appropriate forum ), I recall years ago how I much enjoyed speaking with Jim Lushine with Miami NWS and recall his unofficial correlation between unusually dry South Florida months of May and heightened risk of tropical cyclone landfalls for the region. Though no concrete relationship was established, I would be curious to know how continued dry conditions into June might have shown further correlation to those years with S. Florida landfalls.

(The 7AM Update did include commentary on the drought, however any 'correlation' questions should be directed to the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 07 2011 11:58 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MikeC	Tue Jun 07 2011 01:49 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MikeC	Tue Jun 07 2011 04:14 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	adam s	Tue Jun 07 2011 03:53 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MichaelA	Tue Jun 07 2011 09:53 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	weathernet	Tue Jun 07 2011 01:49 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	scottsvb	Mon Jun 06 2011 10:45 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MikeC	Mon Jun 06 2011 06:56 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 06 2011 04:55 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	scottsvb	Mon Jun 06 2011 04:55 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MichaelA	Mon Jun 06 2011 03:36 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	doug	Mon Jun 06 2011 03:12 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	scottsvb	Mon Jun 06 2011 02:20 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	Bloodstar	Mon Jun 06 2011 02:19 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MichaelA	Mon Jun 06 2011 02:12 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	danielw	Mon Jun 06 2011 01:46 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	weathernet	Mon Jun 06 2011 12:54 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	scottsvb	Mon Jun 06 2011 12:45 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MichaelA	Mon Jun 06 2011 10:53 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MichaelA	Sun Jun 05 2011 06:43 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MikeC	Sun Jun 05 2011 05:12 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	WesnWylie	Sun Jun 05 2011 04:20 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	weathernet	Sun Jun 05 2011 04:07 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	Hugh	Sun Jun 05 2011 03:18 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	Edski	Sun Jun 05 2011 02:25 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	MichaelA	Sun Jun 05 2011 01:00 PM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	Hugh	Sun Jun 05 2011 11:48 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	okihabu	Sun Jun 05 2011 11:46 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	Hugh	Sun Jun 05 2011 11:26 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	chase 22	Sun Jun 05 2011 09:08 AM
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While	doug	Sun Jun 05 2011 08:49 AM

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