At 19Z a Tropical Disturbance appears to be forming a low level center near 26.1N 75.9W (with considerable margin for error) or about 250 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Movement is to the west, perhaps even slightly north of due west, at 15 knots. Winds near the formative center are estimated at 25 to 30 knots with pressure estimated at 1010mb.
The system has gained better organization during the day and if this trend continues, formation of a Tropical Depression seems likely later this evening. Squalls extend outward about 100 miles to the west of the center and about 150 miles to the north, east and south of the center. Squalls should reach the southern half of the Florida east coast well before sunrise on Thursday with some squalls producing tropical storm force gusts and brief heavy downpours.
Since most of the 'weather' is east of the developing center, rain squalls should last through mid afternoon along the Florida east coast, and into the evening along the Florida west coast.
If the system continues to develop, there is a chance that it might reach Tropical Storm intensity just before landfall Thursday morning, so residents of southeast Florida should monitor the progress of this developing system closely. All residents from about St. Augustine southward can expect a wet and windy commute Thursday morning.
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