Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Bret Losing Strength,Moving Away from US
Sat Jul 16 2011 05:45 PM
7:00 AM EDT Update 19 July 2011
Bret has been losing strength since mid last night, working in dry air from the north, keeping the system from developing much new convection.
The forecasted motion to the northeast is continuing, and now with no watches/warnings advisories will come every 6 hours. At 5 AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM. On the forecast track it moves between the Carolinas and Bermuda, being no real factor for either.
The opportunity for Bret to become a hurricane has passed as well,
Outside of Bret, low chance areas include the area east of the Caribbean (Not Likely to develop), a wave in the Central Atlantic around 35 west (one to watch late this week), and another area northeast of Puerto Rico (Not likely to develop).
6:30 AM EDT Update 18 July 2011
Tropical Storm Bret is still generally moving slowly, currently toward the east at 3mph, it is forecast to meander a bit more and eventually head north to north northeast and then curve out to sea.
Overnight it has gained a bit of strength and has conditions favorable enough that it may form into the year's first hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. There is a fairly good model consensus on the system staying out to sea, Even though odds are highly against it making landfall (or even getting close) to the Carolinas, but it may be a good idea to check back over the next two days to see if the trends out to sea continue.
Dry air will likely begin to affect Bret later in the week which will likely keep it from strengthening too much. After 3 days or so conditions get hostile for the system.
Outside of Bret, there doesn't seem to be much going on. The only long shot place to look for systems later this week may be east of the Caribbean. Outside of Bret and that there really is not much going on in the Atlantic Tropics.
8:00 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
Tropical Depression Two has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret.
6:00 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
A new recon report supports Tropical Storm force winds, it is likely that Tropical Storm Bret will form with the next advisory (around 8PM).
4:45 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
98L has strengthened to Tropical Depression two. The official forecast keeps it offshore of Florida, and based on what has occurred today there is very little reason to disagree with in the NHC's track. It is still worth monitoring over the next few days.
2 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
At 2PM the National Hurricane Center upgraded chances of 98L to 40% for development within the next 48 hours, and recon aircraft currently is near the west coast of Florida and heading toward the system.
The system is looking impressive on visible satellite, but not so much on the infrared as it is losing some convection there. Dry air is approaching the central Florida area, and may help keep the system weak This may keep it holding the rest of the day. More should be known when recon reaches the area.
8 AM EDT Update 17 July 2011
The wave east of Florida has organized overnight and chances are indicated to be 30% development over the next two days. Recon is scheduled to investigate the area today, and because of close proximity to land, it is expected that it will fly.
The system currently is drifting southward toward the Bahamas. Global models are having a hard time picking up on jt because of the relatively small size of the system. It is expected to continue to move very slowly for at least the next 48 hours before the ridge has a chance to begin to affect it. There is a window for the system to move westward at that time, if the ridge misses it, and if so conditions in the upper levels could be slightly unfavorable for the system. That said, the proximity to land leaves little room for error, so it must be watched closely over the several days. Another scenario, is that it does get picked up it could draw it further northward toward the Carolinas, but still stay offshore. The scenario In between is that it would drift over the coast of Florida briefly before heading northeastward.
These small systems can change in strength rapidly, and with apparent hot towers forming in the low, and a good overall low level flow, the stage is set for something to pop up relatively quickly.
Although the prevailing though is that it will eventually move to the northeast and out to sea, it still has a lack of general steering currents around it, and needs to be watched, especially in the Bahamas, but by Florida as well over the next few days.
If the current trend persists through the day, it is possible for development to occur sooner than anticipated. The recon flight out today should help with this.
Bottom line, even though it is likely not to affect Florida directly, and despite the generally not favorable environment, small systems like these can change quickly, and the margin of error is low, so it is a good idea to keep updated on it.
Beyond, 98L a wave in the far eastern Caribbean, near the islands, seems to be organizing as well.
An area of disturbed weather off the east central Florida coastline (98L) is being watched this afternoon, it is from the cut off Frontal area mentioned last week.
Conditions could be more favorable for development into next week. Those along the east Florida coastline and the Bahamas will want to watch this for much needed rainfall. From the current pattern, however, it will meander for several days but most likely stay out to sea.
The current drift is slight toward the south southeast, but there isn't much to steer it, leaving it hanging around probably through most of the upcoming week. The proximity to the east coast of Florida will make it worth watching over the next week, but the probability of anything happening with the system is currently low.