Quote: Official 8PM position is 24.7N 91.8W, the NHC in the advisory considered it a westward jog. More data from the planes coming later should be interesting.
Also the Central Atlantic wave (no invest yet) has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours, so we may go from Don right into tracking another system.
I was considering the possibility that this was a center recapture/reposition as causal to that apparent jog.
Impressively cold persisting quasi-CDO feature, most likely attributed to the fact that the system is currently passing close a region of very high oceanic heat content - with significant thermocline depth as well. This is providing a source of high fuel input that is compensating for any dry air impacts, as well.
So long as we have a TC with a closed circulation, quick pressure falls would likely have to occur given to these powerfully sustaining updrafts as evidenced by IR channels. Most guidance keeps this rather pedestrian; let us hope that is verified. We have seen in the past that pretty satellite presentations are not always confirmed. My personal hope for this was that a pedestrian system would make its way into interior TX and eventually get caught up in the monsoonal flow into OK and other areas that are parched dry and in severe drought.
Currently the wind overlay at TPC, as coarse as it may be, is indicating that the region of impacting NNE shear is bypassing now to the east as the TC moves away; that may also be helping said recapture scenario because the middle and upper level turrets are no longer leaning away from the llv eddy. Fascinating.
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