The GFDL model is picking this up well. It seems pretty 'bullish' on the development of the wave, takes it near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward islands of the Caribbean probably want to think about preparations for later if this takes off.
Most of the globals slam it into Hispaniola, but if it misses, odds currently only slightly favor out to sea beyond the Caribbean, but that will probably change.
The HRWF avoids the Caribbean entirely, and keeps the system generally out to sea.
Either way, once passed the Caribbean...
With a trough probably setting up along the East coast, odds slightly favor this system staying out to sea beyond the Caribbean . But it's still worth watching to see what, if anything, changes.
With the NAO pattern like it is this year (fairly similar to last year), it means that most storms coming from the east/Cape Verde have odds that favor them staying out to sea. The things to watch for are any exceptions to the general rule.
In that case it's still a bit too early to tell with the system, so we watch, but odds still are odds.
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