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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Michael) , Major: 38 (Michael) Florida - Any: 38 (Michael) Major: 38 (Michael)
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge
      Sat Jul 30 2011 07:02 AM

Long term on 91L is still interesting, the Euro model slams the wave into Hispaniola and destroys it, or more correctly splits it, if that happens it'll likely move the moisture toward Florida, but without the storm along with it, while another piece goes out over the Bahamas and out.

The GFS has it over northeastern puerto rico then staying to the northeast of the Bahamas, and in prime area for recurve.

Most of the other models have it going over or near Puerto Rico, a few of them keep it more westerly into Hispaniola, a few keep it away. But models generally agree until about the time it approaches Puerto Rico.

If it does approach Hispaniola it will likely get ripped apart, if it stays northeast or just over puerto rico and heads into the Altantic, it most likely recurves. If it stays south,it's likely to continue westward for a while. HRWF keeps it northeast of the Islands the entire time

The near/over Puerto Rico and recurve appears to be the most likely based on conditions, second most likely is slamming into Hispaniola, least likely is for it to stay south of the islands and continue west.

As for Bahama/US impact, chances are against it, but if it were to split the difference between Hispaniola/PR, then it possibly could, but this is not likely.

Personally, I'd lean toward the further south scenario (probably staying in the Caribbean perhaps the entire time), especially if development doesn't happen today which despite the front page title (which isn't just me) we put up, I think may hold off. However, If it gets up close to PR though and up through there, I see way more things keeping it away from the US than things that bring it closer. That trough is just going to be too much.

I don't expect it to bother the east coast US based on what I see right now.



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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Sat Jul 30 2011 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola shew   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola stormtiger   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Wingman51   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola M.A.   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Hurric   Sat Aug 06 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola LoisCane   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola B_from_NC   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge tpratch   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 08:19 AM
. * * Invest 91L Becoming Better Organized cieldumort   Fri Jul 29 2011 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge metwannabe   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Joeyfl   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge hogrunr   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WesnWylie   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:02 PM

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