I'm not yet ready to jump on the 'rapid development' bandwagon for this system. I realize that NHC increased the 48-hour development probability to 70% last night but, from what I can observe on satellite, thats at least 20% too high. The tropical wave is elongated along a west northwest to east southeast axis and still has no well-defined center. NHC suggests a 1008MB low (up from 1007) near 11N 45W at 30/10Z which may have reorganized near 11.5N 46.3W at 12Z, however there are other convergence points within the wave. On the plus side, during the night the wave lifted out of the ITCZ but cyclonic organization still has a long way to go. I think that it will get there - its just going to take some time.
Until the centerpoint becomes established its difficult to develop a future track, however a west northwest movement toward the northern Leeward Islands seems likely - perhaps even slightly north of the Islands. As the wave lifts further north it will encounter westerly windshear which is why I'm leaning toward a slower development process. This shear zone should decrease west of the Islands. ED
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