This mornings models are gravitating toward Hispaniola. If this system were to move over the island which contains the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the high mountains there would rip the system to shreds, and probably cause extremely heavy rainfall in Haiti, which would likely bring heavy potentially deadly mudslides to the area.
It would open it up to get closer to the Bahamas, but as a very torn up, weak system. Some fairly well developed systems have disintegrated over the island before.
The split storm possibility still exists (See the ECMWF model) , meaning one area of convection stays in the Caribbean moving west, and the other split off and heads north through the islands. This keeps both extremely weak, and is a good possibility, and based on what I see this morning is probably what I'd go with.
The probability of this system affecting the US East coast is still very very low, like under 2% low, (but this is slightly higher than yesterday)-- overall not likely.
This split dynamic, and westward motion confuses things greatly so it will have to be watched closely over the next several days regardless since there are so many differing possibilities based around intensity and consolidation. It will likely keep the system weak, thus staying westward in the Caribbean maybe all the way to Nicaragua unless one takes over the other. Ie, what the FIM model shows.
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