I was tempted to title this post 'The Mess Called 91L - Either One, Take Your Pick'. Anyway, I decided to put this here so that it could survive being EDited by myself
The right/east half of 91L has a mid to high level circulation, well defined but weakening, located at 15N 52.3W at 31/18Z. This center is moving slowly west.
The right/east half of 91L has a weak LLCC located at 13.5N 52.5W at 31/18Z which is also moving west.
The left/west half of 91L has its most predominant center (there are others - which is not bad for a so-called wind surge) located at 12N 58W at 31/18Z and it is also moving west. Both halves were evident yesterday - they were just in closer proximity to one another.
The left/west half has a better environment for development while the right/east half has better overall organization. I believe that recon is heading toward this right/east half but someone else can confirm that either way. The current best candidate for eventual tropical cyclone designation is the left/west half - but it will take awhile to get there.
At 31/12Z, the GFDL was initialized at 12.9N 51.5W - which is useless if the right/east half falls apart. At 31/12Z, the HWRF was initialized at 13.1N 51.5W - which could also become useless for the same reason. (Note that the initialization points are approximations.) The 31/18Z NHC Tropical Suite was finally published using 13.5N 52.8W, so all of the model marbles are rolling on the right/east half.
To add a little spice to the soup, there is also another piece of energetic development near 18N 62.5W.
Given the luck that NHC (and us) have been suffering with this bi-polar system, I fully expect the right/east half to soon be designated as a TD. Twelve hours later the TD will fall completely apart and the left/west system will be designated a TS (humor intended). ED
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 27448
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center