I took a look at NHC's position and the CIMMS Wnd Shear Analysis; at 31/2345Z the position of 13.5N 53.0W is directly under the 200/300 mb Upper Ridge. As you move west along the upper ridge axis located along 14N latitude winds are 15 knots from the south and along 16N latitude winds aloft increase to near 30 knots from the southwest. A wind surge may be construed as a gust front; outflow boundary from thunderstorms. Overland we have what are called gravity waves...rapid pressure falls creating gradience behind convective complexes which make for some very strong wind conditions followed by rapid pressure increases and winds return to calm/normal. Someone who is more versed with tropical weather may know more about this phenomena than I. This is a broad area and I wouldn't be surprised like Tip mentioned multiple surface & mid-level vortices...a big mess; I agree. In regards to the north bias the models are running it may be in response to the deeping east coast USA longwave trough in the days ahead. There's simply no way to know in the here and now how much amplification there will be of this trough into the tropics.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 23436
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center