West vs Recurve is setting up, this mornings GFS Run is included to illustrate (Please note this likely WILL Not happen)
That's part of the westward trend the models have been doing the last few days on this elongated system. I'm posting that to mention that it still hasn't formed, but it's worth watching. It still could head further west in the Caribbean, but model guidance suggests it may go over Hispaniola, if it misses Hispaniola to the east or west, a scenario like that could happen. But again it's not likely, if it were to make it north of the islands, the odds still favor the out to sea scenario, the classic "get really close but recurve" routine, which tends to drive hype up to extreme levels (and can have a potentially even more dangerous cry wolf side effect if nothing occurs). We'll try to avoid that, and keep it as matter of fact as we can, but even then if you haven't read the NHC's advisories first before looking at the rest of the internet, you are wasting your time.
What do I think will happen? It'll continue west for a while and recurve, but I have no idea when (it may still make it to Central America first), so it will be monitored. The best way to handle analyzing things like this is to take a historically common scenario, say recurve, then find all the reasons why something like that would occur, and search for that in the current system. The less of them you find the more likely it would not. Going into looking for reasons for it to go further west is usually the wrong approach, do the opposite, the lack of reasons for recurving will be more telling. I'm going to do that analysis probably tonight.
That said, it may not develop enough for advisories today, so speculation will continue.
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