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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 91L Lounge
      Mon Aug 01 2011 08:32 AM

West vs Recurve is setting up, this mornings GFS Run is included to illustrate (Please note this likely WILL Not happen)


That's part of the westward trend the models have been doing the last few days on this elongated system. I'm posting that to mention that it still hasn't formed, but it's worth watching. It still could head further west in the Caribbean, but model guidance suggests it may go over Hispaniola, if it misses Hispaniola to the east or west, a scenario like that could happen. But again it's not likely, if it were to make it north of the islands, the odds still favor the out to sea scenario, the classic "get really close but recurve" routine, which tends to drive hype up to extreme levels (and can have a potentially even more dangerous cry wolf side effect if nothing occurs). We'll try to avoid that, and keep it as matter of fact as we can, but even then if you haven't read the NHC's advisories first before looking at the rest of the internet, you are wasting your time.

What do I think will happen? It'll continue west for a while and recurve, but I have no idea when (it may still make it to Central America first), so it will be monitored. The best way to handle analyzing things like this is to take a historically common scenario, say recurve, then find all the reasons why something like that would occur, and search for that in the current system. The less of them you find the more likely it would not. Going into looking for reasons for it to go further west is usually the wrong approach, do the opposite, the lack of reasons for recurving will be more telling. I'm going to do that analysis probably tonight.

That said, it may not develop enough for advisories today, so speculation will continue.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 01 2011 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola shew   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola stormtiger   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Wingman51   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola M.A.   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Hurric   Sat Aug 06 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola LoisCane   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola B_from_NC   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge tpratch   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 08:19 AM
. * * Invest 91L Becoming Better Organized cieldumort   Fri Jul 29 2011 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge metwannabe   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Joeyfl   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge hogrunr   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WesnWylie   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:02 PM

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