West vs Recurve is setting up, this mornings GFS Run is included to illustrate (Please note this likely WILL Not happen)
That's part of the westward trend the models have been doing the last few days on this elongated system. I'm posting that to mention that it still hasn't formed, but it's worth watching. It still could head further west in the Caribbean, but model guidance suggests it may go over Hispaniola, if it misses Hispaniola to the east or west, a scenario like that could happen. But again it's not likely, if it were to make it north of the islands, the odds still favor the out to sea scenario, the classic "get really close but recurve" routine, which tends to drive hype up to extreme levels (and can have a potentially even more dangerous cry wolf side effect if nothing occurs). We'll try to avoid that, and keep it as matter of fact as we can, but even then if you haven't read the NHC's advisories first before looking at the rest of the internet, you are wasting your time.
What do I think will happen? It'll continue west for a while and recurve, but I have no idea when (it may still make it to Central America first), so it will be monitored. The best way to handle analyzing things like this is to take a historically common scenario, say recurve, then find all the reasons why something like that would occur, and search for that in the current system. The less of them you find the more likely it would not. Going into looking for reasons for it to go further west is usually the wrong approach, do the opposite, the lack of reasons for recurving will be more telling. I'm going to do that analysis probably tonight.
That said, it may not develop enough for advisories today, so speculation will continue.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 23637
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center