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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)

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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Geography and Other Things
Mon Aug 01 2011 05:46 PM

Using the NHC 01/18Z position for the center and latest visual images, the center of Invest 91L is, at 01/21Z, passing between the islands of Dominica to the south and Guadeloupe to the north. At 01/21Z, the winds at Melville Hall Airport on Dominica were out of the east at 23 knots. The other reported light westerly winds on some of the other islands are a result of local terrain effects. The recon did find a couple of westerly winds of 5 to 7 knots, but nowhere near enough to justify an upgrade of this system to tropical cyclone status - especially when measured against the strong easterly winds on Dominica.

Realistically the system looks horrible compared to yesterday (and it looked bad then). If you had taken your first look at this system just now, would you have assigned it an 80% chance for near-term 48hr development? Even at 80% (a number that has been going down) there is still a 20% chance that it will not develop soon. Based on the disorganization of the system the development chances still seem too high and TC status is not likely tonight.

The LLCC is still moving rapidly west northwestward at 18 knots. There is still a zone of westerly shear and dry air between 18N-23N that will hamper development. It still has a chance to become a named system, but probably not an overly strong one.
ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Large Wave East of Caribbean Looking Better this Morning	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	Joeyfl	Mon Aug 01 2011 07:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	Joeyfl	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:49 PM
Tropical Storm Emily	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:35 PM
Re: Geography and Other Things	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:25 PM
Re: Geography and Other Things	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:16 PM
Geography and Other Things	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:46 PM
Re: Depression	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:38 PM
Re: Depression	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:01 PM
Re: Depression	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:58 PM
Re: Depression	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:51 PM
Re: Depression	Rich B	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:40 PM
Re: Depression	Bloodstar	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:24 PM
Re: Depression	metwannabe	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:22 PM
Depression	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 03:49 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	adam s	Mon Aug 01 2011 03:04 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:51 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:35 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:24 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:21 PM
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 01:47 PM
Tropical Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 01:39 PM
Recon	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 01:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	doug	Mon Aug 01 2011 12:56 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 12:04 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 11:36 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 11:24 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	adam s	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MichaelA	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:03 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	metwannabe	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:03 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:38 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	berrywr	Sun Jul 31 2011 10:15 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 06:35 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:37 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:13 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:49 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	renka	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:39 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Rich B	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:35 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:26 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:15 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:05 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:44 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:41 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:34 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:18 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:13 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:00 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:37 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:33 PM
Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:30 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:50 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:35 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:27 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	scottsvb	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:19 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	WesnWylie	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:19 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:59 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:56 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:44 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:33 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:20 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 11:40 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 10:44 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:55 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:36 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:35 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sat Jul 30 2011 11:09 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 30 2011 02:23 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sat Jul 30 2011 09:29 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sat Jul 30 2011 09:22 AM

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