Been out of town and somewhat out of touch, and have taken a good part of today to analyze ( and mostly catch up on last couple days of developments, models, etc ) for 91L. Quick thoughts for the moment are:
1) Am and have been really concerned about the heat over the S.E. US,, with regards to overall ridging. Furthermore, the latest 12Z run of the Euro seems to indicate ridging that is building westward along with time. 2) Though environment for 91L has shown a good amount of dry air to its north, a surge of moisture seems to be catching up from the ITCZ. 3) There is no doubt, an abundant extent of vorticity assocated with the overall envelope of this sizeable wave. 4) I believe we might see significant deepening of this system once "Emily" ( not yet officially named ) gets its act together. This may prove to be one of those more rare examples where significant developing occurs in the Eastern Caribbean 5) Will refrain from specific details or guess at this time, however have real concerns regarding a Southeast U.S. impact, and am more concerned over this possibly developing into a major hurricane.
Good news is that most of the models have not been carrying this as a consistantly strong developed system, but rather have been up and down with their forecasts......
Bad news is that all prior model data can be soon thrown out the window, and perhaps only now ( or soon ), given a potentially "true" developed system can the more reliable models be viewed with potential accuracy.
Overall, I think the slower development of 91L, may have really created the element of delay which might prove more crucial in the systems overall threat of not recurving.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 30517
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center