MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Emily Heading West Northwest in the Caribbean
Mon Aug 01 2011 07:31 PM
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11:00 PM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
The official forecast didn't change much at 11, just extended out further another point, but following the curve, it's going to be close, but odds still favor the east of US landfall side, but it will be dangerously close and must be watched closely. It may be close enough for Tropical Storm watches to be put up in part of East Central, or South Florida Late Thursday or Friday. Luckily the western side of the storm in a northward traveling system is usually the weaker side. It still will likely bring very rough surf to the beaches along the east coast.
This advisory now places Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Southeast Virginia inside the cone of uncertainty. Anyone in the cone should be keeping up with developments on Emily.
However, for those in the Bahamas, as there are now Tropical Storm Warnings up for the Southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands.
New Full Update tomorrow morning.
6:00 PM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
Based upon the 5PM National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Emily has increased slightly in strength, but is still relatively disorganized.
The track forecast is becoming more obvious that it will stay offshore of Florida and the United States though, but the Bahamas will likely be dealing with the system, as there are now Tropical Storm Watches up for the Southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands. It still has to cross Hispaniola, and heavy rainfall is expected. It is still possible for the storm to get torn apart over Hispaniola.
Despite the odds favoring no US hit, there still remains uncertainty with Emily's future track and strength, and this is not an "all clear". The situation will still need to be monitored, especially tomorrow and once the storm exits the Caribbean.
Heavy Flooding was experienced in Martinique and Guadeloupe from Emily, check out the StormCarib link below for more information on that.
Feel free to reply to ask questions, or make observations.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
8:30 AM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
Recon found the center a bit south and east of the official 5AM position, within the heavy convection, which is likely an indicator that Emily may gain some strength today. This will likely cause the forecast track to move further eastward later, and decreases the chance of a Florida landfall. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty left as far as how much further west Emily gets before starting to bend northward, though. So it is expected that the cone to continue to have parts of Florida in it today.
Those in the islands, however, may have to deal with a stronger system, especially as it approaches Hispaniola.
5 AM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
The morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center has arrived, and the forecast track has shifted west, in the short term, but has a tighter recurve element later, keeping it just offshore of Florida, but most of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina remains in the Cone of high uncertainty. The system is expected to remain weak, and now is forecast to remain a Tropical Storm as it stays offshore of Florida later in the track. However, the amount of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 3 days is very high, both for position and intensity.
Shear from the north northwest is currently impacting the system, and the low level center seems to be west of the main convection, in short Emily is not very healthy this morning. This weakness makes the forecast much more difficult for the hurricane center. Recon aircraft have yet to check out the system this morning, but will later in the morning.
What this means for Florida, less chance of a hurricane, but still something to keep watch on. If the system manages to hold itself together (it still may fall apart), then once it nears the islands it could strengthen some. Most likely though, it will remain weak throughout the next 4 to 5 days or so, but the uncertainty level with that is high. It will be important to monitor it throughout the week. Much depends on how intense (or not) the storm is, and intensity is the least understood element of hurricane forecasting.
Emily's forecast is likely to change again, and it is too soon to tell if it is in Florida's favor or not.
Outside of Emily, there is a wave in the eastern Atlantic that may develop next week, but nothing really elsewhere.
Feel free to reply to ask questions, or make observations.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
{{StormCarib}}
BoatUS
{{StormLinks|Emily|05|5|2011|2|Emily}}
Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
11PM EDT 1 August 2011 Update
The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.
Initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z GFS, with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.
As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.
However, most of the state of Florida is in the cone, and it is important to monitor this system closely.
We'll update in the morning.
Original Update
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have finally closed off a circulation center in the wave area known as 91L, with winds supporting Tropical Storm force. Thus, Tropical Storm Emily (2011 edition) is born.
Tropical Storm Warnings up for:
Dominica
Guadaloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
and the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Watches up for:
U.S. Virgin Islands
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Haiti
The current forecast cone takes the storm across the Caribbean and crosses over Hispaniola, which may serve to weaken (and hopefully destroy) the storm, but not without causing a great deal of trouble for Haiti.
Thursday it is projected to near the Southern Bahamas, and travel along the southwesterly side. Saturday it is projected to approach south Florida, and be very near the coast near west Palm beach Saturday late afternoon into evening. The average error at this far out is 250 miles either direction, so it is not a certain thing by any means, especially after 48 hours. Those in the potential cone area will want to make sure review your plan and hurricane supplies before the rush at the end of the week if this forecast verifies.
If the initial 7:30 PM official forecast were to pan out, Emily would move up the spine of the state, and potentially exit near Daytona Beach, which would include most of east Central Florida in the dirty side of the system. It is likely to change somewhat though, hopefully to the far east. (Although further westward motion is possible, those in Tampa and West coasts will want to keep an eye on it as well). If it were to change, it would most likely move further east toward the Bahamas, but it is important to stay informed to see what happens to the forecast, especially when the system eventually leaves the Caribbean.
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