Most of today's models have a lot of garbage data in them, I don't expect models to clear up until Tomorrow. The "0z" run will have the recon data, and the proper initialization from the Tropical Storm. Trend watching becomes much more viable now.
I'm hoping the re curve dynamic still exists, since now if this system organizes more. The same dynamics are in play. Many times it's been joked that it's a great when you are at the 5 day point for the cone, because it hardly ever verifies. Still the general rule is for it to recurve east, which it will at somepont. If it is over Florida at that point, it would be bad. If Hispaniola tears up the system a great deal, it could be more like Fay in 2008, just a lot of rain.
Current thought is the models will shift more east, and perhaps the forecast, but still too close for comfort. If you are in the cone, it goes without saying, watch this very closely. , As a side note, this system is in Hebert's Box.
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