Quote: Models are still a mess today, but some of them like the GFDL, HWRF, TVCN are showing a very sharp east motion at the end of the curve. That's a possible sign of a cyclonic loop, ie the storm does a big loop and heads back west, ala Jeanne from 2004. (It does not mean this will occur, in fact, it likely will not, but similar models signs showed for it back then as a indicator).
The overall mass is still moving west, but the center seems to be reforming, causing the stationary report.
The latest sat loop pics seem to be indicating a more due West movement. If that trend continues and the large scale patterns don't evolve, then Emily could stay South of Hispaniola. That's just my conjecture at the moment. Still waiting for the 12Z model runs.
-------------------- Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 1/0/0
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