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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Emily Forecast Lounge
      Tue Aug 02 2011 05:21 PM

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011 (edited~danielw)

A FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EARLY IN
THE CYCLE...AND THROUGH 36-42 HRS IT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS. BY 54-60 HRS...AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AXIS...THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT IN TWO...LEAVING BEHIND A TUTT LOW NEAR 27N 72W.
THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON INTENSITY OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONGER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN THAN
MOST OTHER MODELS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THIS IS TO THEN
ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS CUBA....WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.
THROUGH 48 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY. OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH 42-48 HRS... TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC/EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MEANWHILE SUSTAINING A
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT THAT IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAY 03...WHEN IT IS TO CENTER ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE NHC FORECAST EMILY TO
TRACK SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TOWARDS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF PENINSULA DE
BARAHONA. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS
HAITI TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA. WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO FOLLOW AS IT MOVES NORTH OF CUBA/THE BAHAMAS.
THE BROAD CIRCULATION SUSTAINS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 02 2011 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola shew   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola stormtiger   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Wingman51   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola M.A.   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Hurric   Sat Aug 06 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola LoisCane   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola B_from_NC   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge tpratch   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 08:19 AM
. * * Invest 91L Becoming Better Organized cieldumort   Fri Jul 29 2011 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge metwannabe   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Joeyfl   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge hogrunr   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WesnWylie   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:02 PM

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