MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear
Wed Aug 03 2011 06:32 AM
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11PM Update 3 August 2011
Not too much has changed with the 11PM Official advisory, odds still favor a recurve before US landfall, and is the official forecast.
But unfortunately we cannot rule out landfall, from the official 11PM discussion:
"If a northward component of motion does not begin soon... or the track guidance shifts father to the left in future cycles... The thread to Florida and the southeastern United States will increase."
Emily may be going at another run of strengthening, in the last vortex message from recon, they spotted rapid tropical storm development in the southeastern side of the system.
A gradual trend toward the west has been the trend all day, see the forecast lounge for more details (Or the model links at the bottom of the main page).
Unfortunately for Haiti, they will likely receive 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, which is extremely dangerous in that environment.
The next set of models run (0z) will have data from the NOAA Gulfstream 'Gonzo' jet that sampled the atmosphere to the north of Emily.
There are no changes in the watches/warnings. A new full official update will come tomorrow morning at 5AM EDT. This site will also be updated tomorrow morning with new information.
8PM Update 3 August 2011
Emily Stalls again, or is reforming the center a bit east under convection, and is expected to resume generally west or west northwest motion later tonight.
6PM Update 3 August 2011
The official 5PM forecast takes Emily over the western peninsula of Haiti (the Tiburon Peninsula), clips eastern Cuba, then north Through the Bahamas. It remains offshore of Florida (closest approach point is Saturday Afternoon as a 60MPH Tropical Storm) and then recurves it out to sea, not affecting any US mainland.
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the northern Bahamas because of this, and Central Bahamas have been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
Odds still favor the system staying offshore of Florida, but there is considerable uncertainty past the point of exiting the Caribbean.
With Emily still dealing with a tilted center, and earlier in the day it was completely exposed. IT has continued to move west despite earlier official predictions. This trend still is continuing now, so things could change greatly. If the system manages to avoid the mountains of Hispaniola it has a better shot of organizing if it goes north of there.
There still is a low to medium chance that Emily will fall apart, but this becomes less likely the more it avoids Hispaniola.
It is likely to bring extremely heavy rainfall to the Dominican Republic and Haiti regardless, which is especially dangerous in quake ravaged Haiti.
It, unfortunately, is still too early to tell what the system will do if it gets past the Caribbean, so all those in the cone must watch for changes. If the forecast were to change much, Tropical Storm watches could be issued for south Florida. Those in south Florida were reminded in the 5PM official discussion to watch Emily.
11AM Update 3 August 2011
Emily's center of circulation has outrun the convection shield, and is very vulnerable as it moves west.
If it survives the next day or two it will enter a slightly better position to recover, and the current forecast track still takes it east of Florida, but has moved much closer.
If it does reach near Florida without falling apart, it will likely be on the weak side. The current official track takes it across the western part of Haiti, clipping the eastern edge of Cuba,
Then system begins to curve northward toward the Bahamas and clips Andros island, and then recurves out to sea. The closest point to Florida has it as a 60MPH Tropical Storm around 8AM Saturday morning.
The amount of rainfall that Hispaniola, Puerto Rico likely will receive will be great.
In short, the issue today is determining if Emily will survive, and how strong will it be if/when it exits the Caribbean. Until then, the forecast beyond is very speculative and uncertain.
Original Update
This morning the tilted core of Tropical Storm Emily has been moving west northwest around 14 mph. Following the national hurricane center's official forecast fairly well. It is expected to make landfall in the Dominican Republic and cross the very rugged mountains into Haiti, which has a good chance to disrupt or even destroy the storm. The rainfall from the system should start to arrive this afternoon in the Dominican Republic.
Assuming it survives the trek over Hispaniola, it is then forecast to begin turning northward toward the Bahamas, and eventually recurve away from land. Chances of it slipping toward the us still exist, but are not likely. By Saturday afternoon it is forecast to be a Tropical Storm in the Bahamas, well east of Florida. I then curves away from the US and goes out to sea. possibly as a hurricane by that time.
Parts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will still want to monitor the progress of Emily, as they are still in the cone, but as of now the chances of a landfall there are fairly low. Expect rough surf this along the east coast this weekend.
Mountains and Tropical Cyclones do not mix, and has dissipated systems in better shape than Emily in the past. The size of Emily may allow it to not be completely destroyed once it crosses, but it definitely will limit any strengthening. One system that did cross in years past was Tropical Storm Fay from 2008, it did cross over Hispaniola and meandered around in Florida bringing extreme amounts of rainfall The rainfall amounts from Emily will likely be very destructive to Haiti, with flooding rains and mudslides, any precautions people can take there are recommended.
Bottom line, things are still a bit cloudy with Emily, and official advisories from the National Hurricane Center and local agencies will still need to be monitored by anyone in the cone This morning it appears less likely for landfall in the US but it still cannot be ruled out. Haiti will likely get flooding rains, and until the system clears Hispaniola the future of Emily is uncertain. And the southern Bahamas should expect Tropical Storm Conditions roughly midday Tomorrow. Slight changes in intensity and the forecast track are very likely.
Beyond Emily, the African Waves will need to be monitored next week, but there is nothing else close by.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
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Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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