Quote: I am, by no means, a weather expert, but looking at the NHC visible it looks like Emily is moving further west than expected and storms are starting to fire up around the center.
Yes, the convection is/was trying to fire up over the LLC, but the shear takes it off to the NE, so Emily will remain weak in the short term. I'm beginning to think that with a very weak, disorganized storm which is tracking more and more to the West, it is going to play havoc with the track and intensity guidance for a few days. Looking at the Atlantic Wide View WV loop and the RGB IR loop, I don't see a northward turn happening as soon as the consensus indicates. At any rate, with the interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, I do believe that Emily will remain a rather weak system possibly degrading to a depression or open wave.
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 1/0/0
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