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#98L becoming a fully Sub-Tropical Cyclone and may be named later this morning, but no threat to US land as it heads NE over cooling waters
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Nate) , Major: 328 (Maria) Florida - Any: 338 (Irma) Major: 338 (Irma)
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
      Wed Aug 03 2011 04:07 PM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
217 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 06 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 10 2011 edited~danielw

...MID LEVEL RIDGING RELOCATES FROM
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WEST TO AZ/NM AND NWRN MEXICO.
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES WILL AFFECT FORECAST TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM EMILY AIDING IN ITS RECURVATURE AND PUSHING IT EAST
AND NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST.

VAST MAJORITY OF
HURRICANE MODELS/ENSEMBLES TAKE THIS SYSTEM OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW.

IT REMAINS INTERESTING THAT THE UKMET AND CMC ALONG
WITH BAM HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM QUITE WEAK
AND ALLOW IT TO BE STEERED MUCH MORE WESTWARD BY LOWER LEVEL FLOW.

SEE NHC FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

****************************************************
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC edited~danielw

...TROPICAL STORM EMILY...

THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES NORTH OF THE
OFFICIAL NHC POSITION. REGARDING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES...THE NAM
AND GFS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LIE TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC TRACK
WITH THE GFS CLOSEST...THE UKMET FAR TO THE LEFT...AND ECMWF
WEAKER AND TO THE LEFT ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. REFER TO
THE NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 03 2011 04:09 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 03 2011 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola shew   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola stormtiger   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola hogrunr   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Wingman51   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola M.A.   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Hurric   Sat Aug 06 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola LoisCane   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola B_from_NC   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge tpratch   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave (Invest 91L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 29 2011 08:19 AM
. * * Invest 91L Becoming Better Organized cieldumort   Fri Jul 29 2011 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge metwannabe   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge Joeyfl   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge hogrunr   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 91L Lounge WesnWylie   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:02 PM

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