My issue is with the trough coming off the eastern US and the effect the NHC is giving that on the track. That has pretty much already happenned from my observation, and the base of the trough is already NE of the center. In the wake of the trough is the expanding ridge over the SE US. The weakness between the two doe allow the system to filter up into the area near 25N/75W, but that will take until Friday evening at the earliest. By then the dynamic will be different. I would suspect the influence of the trough will only wane with time. I would place confidence in the track only through Friday p.m. Too many variables including intensity.
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