Quote: Latest visibles and infared satellite shots show the center nearing Hispanola and with that a lot of dry air being sucked in towards the center of circulation. In fact it appears to me that in the latest infrared frame a significant amount of dry air is coming right off the mountains of Haiti.
I think the northward "climb" has begun finally and emily will move into the Mona straights, but only as a depression. After that a more northward turn is likely in response to the weakness shown on water vapor well East of the Florida peninsula.
I think Emily is going to be a non-event except for the flooding rains that Haiti does not need. Haiti will be pounded with this slow moving storm for quite awhile.
The AVN is very difficult to discern movement from. It shows the convection shifting, but if you look at the RGB , the lower level circulation clouds are still moving west, with very little north component. Definitely some disruption among the heavy convection right now though.
I do agree though that time is waning for this system to latch onto the weakness to the NE, it will need to happen soon or the weakness will eventually disappear. Just not sure what to make of the models saying this system is going to turn for 3 days...and nothing happening. While the models can be very useful, there comes a point where they are no longer "right" once/if the system does turn. It's like saying that if I get up and say it is going to rain everyday, that I predicted the weather once it finally does rain
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