The Atlantic wave at about 40W this morning, has now been officially tagged as 97L. Currently the air to its north and west remain dry as the system briskly treks westward. Of particular concern however is that the MJO pattern is to soon shift, so to favor the Atlantic and I believe that the Saharan dust layer will abate significantly as this occurs. Noticing the water temp charts, the center of this rather broad envelope system is presently over 27 degree ( C ) water, and by the time it reaches 50 W., will have moved over 29 degree ( C ) water temps.
The GFS model support for this particular system has been persistant, to say the least. 7-9 days off should not be looked too as a reliable reflection of "what will be", however one cannot ignore the persistance in the run after run forecast of a significant hurricane potentially impacting Florida. Of greater interest however, would be the most recent 0Z run of the Euro which now somewhat matches the GFS long range forecast track and for the first time with this particular disturbance, shows intensification as well.
This system does not look to be any threat for any near term rapid development, yet may be a depression or Tropical Storm as it moves over warmer water in its approach to the Leeward Islands in a few days. Greater than the threat of possible US impact, might be the manner of relative quick intensification that the long range maps depict once 97L possibly nears Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and/or the southeasternmost Bahamas. The fact that this Atlantic Hurricane season has thus far only "pumped out" Tropical Storms and all the while, none thus far have reached Hurricane status, might be far more indicative of prevailing upper level conditions and especially the dry air in place. As we now move into the "meat" of the season, those conditions are likely to abate.
(Since long range model discussions belong in the Lounge, this is a good post to start that thread.)
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