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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Irene Forecast Lounge
      Thu Aug 18 2011 10:51 AM

The Atlantic wave at about 40W this morning, has now been officially tagged as 97L. Currently the air to its north and west remain dry as the system briskly treks westward. Of particular concern however is that the MJO pattern is to soon shift, so to favor the Atlantic and I believe that the Saharan dust layer will abate significantly as this occurs. Noticing the water temp charts, the center of this rather broad envelope system is presently over 27 degree ( C ) water, and by the time it reaches 50 W., will have moved over 29 degree ( C ) water temps.

The GFS model support for this particular system has been persistant, to say the least. 7-9 days off should not be looked too as a reliable reflection of "what will be", however one cannot ignore the persistance in the run after run forecast of a significant hurricane potentially impacting Florida. Of greater interest however, would be the most recent 0Z run of the Euro which now somewhat matches the GFS long range forecast track and for the first time with this particular disturbance, shows intensification as well.

This system does not look to be any threat for any near term rapid development, yet may be a depression or Tropical Storm as it moves over warmer water in its approach to the Leeward Islands in a few days. Greater than the threat of possible US impact, might be the manner of relative quick intensification that the long range maps depict once 97L possibly nears Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and/or the southeasternmost Bahamas. The fact that this Atlantic Hurricane season has thus far only "pumped out" Tropical Storms and all the while, none thus far have reached Hurricane status, might be far more indicative of prevailing upper level conditions and especially the dry air in place. As we now move into the "meat" of the season, those conditions are likely to abate.

(Since long range model discussions belong in the Lounge, this is a good post to start that thread.)

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 20 2011 06:41 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet Thu Aug 18 2011 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene Conditions/Observations in Your Area MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge RevUp   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge BryanG   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Floridacane   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge cjzydeco   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge peteferr   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* GlenJohnson   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Thu Aug 25 2011 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TallyBob   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:02 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 18 2011 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 18 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cooper13   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:55 AM
. * * Abaco Bev   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Abaco MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cguhr3   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Wed Aug 24 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Rob1966   Wed Aug 24 2011 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Aug 20 2011 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 20 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Edski   Sat Aug 20 2011 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2011 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 AM

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