To date the trend has been our friend, storms have not deepened and we've watched the models over rate system after system.
However, as it has been pointed out climatalogically the meat of the season is here. The set up is changing and this wave could be the real deal so it needs to be watched.
The GFS has it fairly weak until the Carribean where it shows intensification and a bout with Hispanola or Puerto Rico depending on the run you look at. The upper air pattern on both the GFS and the Euro indicate a weakness over Florida in 5 days or so.
Of course it's early, all we have is a broad unorganized wave and things will surely change. The pattern is of concern and everything else is speculative right now. For instance, the islands could tear apart whatever is there.
I think we'll get a better idea of conditions this weekend.
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