The 12Z models are rolling in, and the trend has a bit more eastward. GFDL 12Z: Over Puerto Rico, Over entire length of Hispaniola, over eastern half of Cuba, Emerges into Florida Straits on Thursday, over Key west Friday, up entire western Spine of Florida. HWRF: Takes Irene over Dominican Republic and north avoiding Haiti, avoids Florida well to the East, rim ends with storm nearing Charleston, SC Euro: Over PR, Clips Dominican Republic, deepens rapidly at 72 hours out north of Hispaniola... Enters Southwest Bahams 96 hours out... stays east of Florida barely misses WPB Friday... Landfall south of Charleston, SC Saturday as a major hurricane... still running... GFS 12Z: over Dominican Republic, misses Cuba, through the western Bahamas, stays east of Florida, landfall near Hilton Head, SC Saturday. Canadian: Keeps system off east coast (brushes Outer Banks) ... Hope this trend continues NOGAPS: Keeps it east of Florida, Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday. TCVN: Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday UKMET: Enters it into the Gulf
So far the trend is looking better for Florida, less so for the Carolinas. It is good to see the chance of a recurve before the US going up, but it's still way too low for comfort (Although it may soon be 50/50 again). The catch is, Irene is still not the best defined system, and the "Center" is jumping around a bit which can mean a lot for eventual landfall position. The more northerly position may very well be a good sign for Florida. Still the NHC's cone looks pretty good.
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