The 12Z models are rolling in, and the trend has a bit more eastward. GFDL 12Z: Over Puerto Rico, Over entire length of Hispaniola, over eastern half of Cuba, Emerges into Florida Straits on Thursday, over Key west Friday, up entire western Spine of Florida. HWRF: Takes Irene over Dominican Republic and north avoiding Haiti, avoids Florida well to the East, rim ends with storm nearing Charleston, SC Euro: Over PR, Clips Dominican Republic, deepens rapidly at 72 hours out north of Hispaniola... Enters Southwest Bahams 96 hours out... stays east of Florida barely misses WPB Friday... Landfall south of Charleston, SC Saturday as a major hurricane... still running... GFS 12Z: over Dominican Republic, misses Cuba, through the western Bahamas, stays east of Florida, landfall near Hilton Head, SC Saturday. Canadian: Keeps system off east coast (brushes Outer Banks) ... Hope this trend continues NOGAPS: Keeps it east of Florida, Landfall near Wilmington, NC Saturday. TCVN: Keeps it east of Florida, but Landfall Charleston, SC Saturday UKMET: Enters it into the Gulf
Overall a significant shift eastward in models, the Euro is most disturbing for South Carolina. This is better news for Florida, but really depends on how much of this persists. Irene still is somewhat disorganized (Telltale sign being it shifting center positions and the elongation of the system north to south). Really not too much has changed other than the odds of a recurve before the US is nearing 50/50 (still favors landfall, however), the probability for Florida has decreased slightly, and the probability for south Carolina has increased slightly. All of this fits into the Cone in the NHC forecast though.
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