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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge
      Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM

That data is only for the current-24hr models in very near term movement.. whatever they sample will not be the same 24hrs from now... another trough will be digging in eroding the ridge Tuesday night-Weds causing a more NW path then N towards the Carolinas.

What I saw in the pattern "Friday Night" when I went out on a limb and said that when this makes landfall in 5-6 days(from then) that the Models depict the Atlantic Ridge stronger than what it currently was and alittle to far SW than what it really was. You see, the ridge was not quite as strong as depicted and alittle more NE causing the intensifying Tropical Storm to move WNW-NW instead of just north of due west till Haiti. Since Friday if you look at the models till Monday.. the Storm back then was forecasted by the models today to be around DR-Haiti in the Carribean.. this is a good 200-300 miles further NE than what was predicted by even the GFS and ECMWF cause they had the Ridge strength wrong and it was further NE. This is exactly why we always tell people to watch the near term models and not the 4 day or longer model runs.. also wait till a system becomes defined (really a TS with pressure under 1006mbs). Still bad placement and strength of that ridge is a downfall in the nearterm.

Irene should continue to move WNW with wobble W and NW but a turn to the NW will take place on Tuesday night-Weds then she will start moving more N well east of florida and georgia. There will even be a chance SC will not get hit and only and the outer banks of NC will feel more of a direct impact. Too early to say really.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene Conditions/Observations in Your Area MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge RevUp   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge BryanG   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Floridacane   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge cjzydeco   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge peteferr   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* GlenJohnson   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Thu Aug 25 2011 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TallyBob   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:02 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 18 2011 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 18 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cooper13   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:55 AM
. * * Abaco Bev   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Abaco MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cguhr3   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Wed Aug 24 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Rob1966   Wed Aug 24 2011 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Aug 20 2011 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 20 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Edski   Sat Aug 20 2011 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2011 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 AM

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