That data is only for the current-24hr models in very near term movement.. whatever they sample will not be the same 24hrs from now... another trough will be digging in eroding the ridge Tuesday night-Weds causing a more NW path then N towards the Carolinas.
What I saw in the pattern "Friday Night" when I went out on a limb and said that when this makes landfall in 5-6 days(from then) that the Models depict the Atlantic Ridge stronger than what it currently was and alittle to far SW than what it really was. You see, the ridge was not quite as strong as depicted and alittle more NE causing the intensifying Tropical Storm to move WNW-NW instead of just north of due west till Haiti. Since Friday if you look at the models till Monday.. the Storm back then was forecasted by the models today to be around DR-Haiti in the Carribean.. this is a good 200-300 miles further NE than what was predicted by even the GFS and ECMWF cause they had the Ridge strength wrong and it was further NE. This is exactly why we always tell people to watch the near term models and not the 4 day or longer model runs.. also wait till a system becomes defined (really a TS with pressure under 1006mbs). Still bad placement and strength of that ridge is a downfall in the nearterm.
Irene should continue to move WNW with wobble W and NW but a turn to the NW will take place on Tuesday night-Weds then she will start moving more N well east of florida and georgia. There will even be a chance SC will not get hit and only and the outer banks of NC will feel more of a direct impact. Too early to say really.
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