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Archives >> 2011 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico
      Mon Aug 22 2011 01:14 PM

The NOAA9 flights today will be sampling the upper atmosphere ahead of Irene; specific to address what many are talking about here...the eastward change in track is good news for FL but bad news for wherever its future track is likely to be now that the core will remain over water until what that eventual landfall is. The discussion released not too long ago does mention a decrease in forward speed. Between two ridges, a longwave trough or major shortwave trough and a strong hurricane to the south what sets up is referred to as a COL; an area of weak steering currents. I did look at the 22/12Z GFS loop and Irene will be with us for a good bit; however it is where Irene will enter the westerlies and that appears to be the Mid-Atlantic. That said, there will be shifts west and east as the strengths of the two ridges need to be ascertained as we go forward as to where the trough over the east coast will be as Irene approaches. The samplings will fill in the gap in the upper air charts and provide much better resolution both for the upper air analysis that include temperature, dew point depression, wind, changes in height in decameters. This too will provide input into all models. A FL landfall was for a weaker Irene; now a projected SC/NC landfall is of a major hurricane. It is way too early to project an exact landfall now that the entire coast is in play at this time. I will post later this evening a complete analysis following the 23/00Z package release. Irene is likely to be a major hurricane.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 01:37 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 22 2011 01:14 PM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:52 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:38 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:34 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 AM
. * * 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene mwillis   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene k___g   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Lamar-Plant City   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM
. * * Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Sheeper   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Yhegler35   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Owlguin   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico WeatherNut   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Marknole   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico papaswamp   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico JMII   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:42 AM

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