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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola
      Tue Aug 23 2011 06:42 AM

Irene keeps firing up deep convection over the core. Every time it starts to die down, new deep convection appears on IR, showing that the storm is still quite healthy even with the dry air entrainment from the affects of the mountains of Hispanola. This entrainment is very clear and will take some time to work out; probably will not fully work out until the storm is further from the mountains. We may see a lapse in storm growth until then, giving us at least several more hours of respite from additional strengthening.

I also included a microwave pass from Modis (via NRL) which shows the outer convective band skirting around the south side of Hispanola in order to avoid the land and mountains. The eye is clearly disrupted, as seen in that pass. While several hours old, the storm has not changed much in IR appearance since then.

What one can see in the attached Water Vapor image is how the mountains are causing dry air ingestion into the storm. South of the mountains is a line of moderate to deep convection spiraling around to the right and north of the storm just outside the dry air stream caused by the land interaction. The storm is able to generate plenty of convection, but the land is keeping the system weaker than it would otherwise be.

The 00Z model runs are out, and converge more closely on a hit somewhere in the Carolinas. However, I want to bring special attention to the 00Z GFS run because it highlights why no one should stop paying attention to the storm. There is no guarentee that the 00Z GFS run is accurate, but it's a warning of what could be. That run shows the track strafing Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina into a North Carolina landfall, across the southern Chesapeake Bay, back out to sea, strafing the New Jersey coast, then back inland over Long Island and Massachusetts, possibly reemerging off the coast only to again make landfall in Maine. The potential exists that the entire Atlantic Seaboard will have significant effect.

This is only what one model run shows, but no one should ignore this storm.

00Z GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Dry air interaction (Water Vapor):


Mountain effects (Microwave via NRL):


Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 23 2011 07:19 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Irene over the Turks and Caicos Islands MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 23 2011 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 24 2011 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola typhoon_tip   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola typhoon_tip   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola cieldumort   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola cieldumort   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Joeyfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola syfr   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola typhoon_tip   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola syfr   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola JMII   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Tazmanian93   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola B_from_NC   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola tpratch   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola VolusiaMike   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola CarolinaGurl   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Tazmanian93   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola javlin   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola JMII   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Firebug814   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola JMII   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:34 AM

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