Quote: Eye fix only 9 minutes apart by two difference planes has a 11nm difference in eye. Looks like an ERC is underway:
Vortex recon at 0:06Z
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) - Extrapolated L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
Vortex recon at 0:15Z
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg) L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles)
That seems a little rapid, and perhaps it is, but such a fluctuation is not necessarily indicative of an eyewall replacement cycle, or even an imminent ERC. There is little suggestion that concentric eyewalls exist at this time (a requisite of a potential replacement cycle).
Agreed with you here - I just also mentioned to 'Chaos that this was probably incidental imagery more than action taking place, and explained why.
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