This link may help too see the plots and the satellite photo at the same time: Wundeground map Bam is already way off.
The most Reliable:: Euro approx 3:20pm for 12z, 3:20am for 0z) GFS 5:30 am, 11:30 am, 5:30pm, 11:30pm GFDL approx 0z (1:30am), 6z (7:30am), 12z (1:30pm)18z (7:30pm) HRWF updates 00z (12:30-1:30am), 06z(6:30-7:30am),12z (12:30-1:30pm),18z (6:30-7:30pm)
Some models handle certain situations better than others, and it takes some skill to recognize what to look toward to vs ignore, and sometimes they can all be wrong, especially with the weaker systems. Strong storms tend to be really easy to model track when they move (if they stop moving it's a different ballgame) It just becomes a game of trends. There is a very slight trend to the west with some of the latest models, but in reality, I think the NHC's track is by far the best one.
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