The BAM suite are early models - first out, quickly computed and they are simplistic models. They are good for a first blush look at a developing new system, like an Invest. As the storm develops and intensifies they are just about useless because they are replaced by highly complex global models that have a much higher degree of accuracy. For a hurricane, look at models like the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, ECMWF, NGM, NOGAPS and CMC. Some of these will perform well for a particular storm and not so good for the next (or previous) storm. Meteorologists at NHC (and elsewhere) use model trends to determine the best models for each storm - and the good ones then adjust the track based on their individual experience and knowledge of atmospherics.
As I will usually state about two or three times each season, the model is NOT the forecast - it is an aid to assist in developing the forecast. Cheers, ED
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