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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

HanKFranK
User

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
Thu Aug 14 2003 08:49 PM

this isn't a complete certainty, but based on ridge strength and model support across the board, i'd throw the dinero on the brownsville area. intensity probably low, any subtle changes to the track and speed should occur close to landfall and not play a great deal into what the end result of erika is. if we wake up tomorrow to a sub-1000mb system then that's good cause for worry, as fast moving storms under favorable conditions can sometimes intensify quite rapidly. anybody remember a certain storm that came straight west into south florida 11 yrs ago? it was moving quite fast, and went from t.s. to cat 5 in about 48hrs. so it's not expected, but not impossible either that erika becomes mean.
elsewhere..
bay of campeche system looked nice as it went inland earlier. sort of thing that would have developed if it wasn't inland instantly.
not so sure about what the carib wave bastardi is alluding to will be.. see some puffy, healthy type convection just east of the islands and won't can the idea, but it has to work its way up from nothing.
sw caribbean blowup today is looking decent at this point, but resembles yesterday's BOC interest.. probably more of an eastpac worry.
28/50.. same sort of system as the one that spawned erika, just not as energetic or in a great environment. yet, it looks better than yesterday.. not much of a development threat but not a definite non-player.
wave i couldn't discern yesterday leads the newly emerged one, around 33w with its greatest area of turning up around 23n. over cool waters but heading for warmer ones.. a testament to the strength of the monsoon that it's so high in latitude.
new wave around 20w.. some models smiling at the prodigious wave/low combo.. with its impressive convection that hasn't all collapsed once offshore. low in latitude as well, and the harrying fast trades don't look to run this prospect to death. so, as with last night's idea, maybe something to follow up erika is in the works.
well, with that huge post and all the areas of interest.. season must be about to really kick off. 2003 active season, here we go.
HF 0052z15august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	CFHC	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:49 PM
Central atlantic wave	Alex	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:42 PM
central atlantic wave	Alex	Mon Aug 18 2003 05:04 PM
can't be too long now	Alex	Sun Aug 17 2003 05:40 PM
GFS puts TC near Puerto Rico	Cycloneye	Sun Aug 17 2003 06:28 PM
Re: GFS puts TC near Puerto Rico	Lonny307	Sun Aug 17 2003 07:55 PM
reflection of a time long ago	Frank P	Sun Aug 17 2003 08:54 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	stormchazer	Mon Aug 18 2003 04:08 PM
Wish List for tomorrow: I want an invest on the wave	Bobbi	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:31 PM
Re: Wish List for tomorrow: I want an invest on the wave	Frank P	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:37 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	islander	Mon Aug 18 2003 05:05 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	Storm Cooper	Mon Aug 18 2003 04:57 PM
Jara/ Coop	Frank P	Mon Aug 18 2003 05:12 PM
Re: Jara/ Coop	Storm Cooper	Mon Aug 18 2003 06:46 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	JustMe	Mon Aug 18 2003 05:00 AM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	57497479	Mon Aug 18 2003 07:39 AM
Things of interest this morning...	Steve	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:48 AM
Re: Things of interest this morning...	islander	Mon Aug 18 2003 10:07 AM
Re: Things of interest this morning...	Frank P	Mon Aug 18 2003 11:03 AM
Re: Things of interest this morning...	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 01:26 PM
Re: Things of interest this morning...	Brad in Miami	Mon Aug 18 2003 11:16 AM
a beautiful wave...happy monday	LoisCane	Mon Aug 18 2003 12:07 PM
BOC	cajun	Mon Aug 18 2003 12:16 PM
Re: Things of interest this morning...	islander	Mon Aug 18 2003 12:03 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 18 2003 12:18 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 18 2003 12:57 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	Brad in Miami	Mon Aug 18 2003 01:25 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 18 2003 01:44 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 06:24 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 06:47 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	Steve	Mon Aug 18 2003 07:47 PM
Re: Things of interest this afternoon	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:26 PM
thanks all	Frank P	Mon Aug 18 2003 10:19 AM
Re: thanks all	Shan	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:22 PM
Re: thanks all	Storm Cooper	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:44 PM
Re: thanks all	57497479	Mon Aug 18 2003 10:29 PM
Re: thanks all	Storm Cooper	Mon Aug 18 2003 10:59 PM
Re: thanks all	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 11:19 PM
Re: thanks all	57497479	Mon Aug 18 2003 11:13 PM
Re: thanks all	BillD	Mon Aug 18 2003 08:01 PM
Re: thanks all	Frank P	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:05 PM
FWIW	Steve	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:22 PM
Re: FWIW	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:39 PM
still there in the morning...looking good, how bout a new room?	bobbi	Tue Aug 19 2003 05:41 AM
Re: still there in the morning...looking good, how bout a new room?	JustMe	Tue Aug 19 2003 07:59 AM
Re: FWIW	stormchazer	Mon Aug 18 2003 09:57 PM
Re: FWIW	javlin	Mon Aug 18 2003 10:13 PM
Atlantic wave has gained convection but is it organizing?	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 18 2003 07:14 AM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	57497479	Sun Aug 17 2003 10:27 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	Mitch	Sun Aug 17 2003 09:37 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	Kevin	Sun Aug 17 2003 09:58 PM
Re: reflection of a time long ago	squirralee	Sun Aug 17 2003 09:31 PM
latest vortex message	Alex	Fri Aug 15 2003 06:42 PM
wave train	Alex	Fri Aug 15 2003 03:21 PM
Re: wave train	stormchazer	Fri Aug 15 2003 04:48 PM
Afternoon Bastardi comment...	Steve	Fri Aug 15 2003 05:04 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	squirralee	Fri Aug 15 2003 11:32 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	scottsvb	Fri Aug 15 2003 11:51 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	islander	Fri Aug 15 2003 12:19 PM
Pressure down to 1002 mb	Brad in Miami	Fri Aug 15 2003 01:37 PM
1001 mb and still flying around	Brad in Miami	Fri Aug 15 2003 01:48 PM
(1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty (2) vortex message	Brad in Miami	Fri Aug 15 2003 01:42 PM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	Brad in Miami	Fri Aug 15 2003 02:23 PM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	scottsvb	Fri Aug 15 2003 02:36 PM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	islander	Fri Aug 15 2003 05:10 PM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	Cycloneye	Fri Aug 15 2003 05:52 PM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	islander	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:12 AM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	islander	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:23 AM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty	islander	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:37 AM
recon v. satellite/dvorak intensity	Brad in Miami	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:54 AM
Re: recon v. satellite/dvorak intensity	javlin	Sat Aug 16 2003 01:12 AM
Re: recon v. satellite/dvorak intensity	javlin	Sat Aug 16 2003 01:16 AM
Last thoughts for now on Erika	Steve	Fri Aug 15 2003 03:34 PM
Track	WXMAN RICHIE	Fri Aug 15 2003 10:01 PM
Re: Track	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 15 2003 11:50 PM
Re: Track	islander	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:07 AM
Re: Track	Ed Dunham	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:02 AM
Re: Track	Steve	Fri Aug 15 2003 11:16 PM
Re: Track	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2003 06:43 AM
San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 16 2003 07:51 AM
Re: San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 08:09 AM
Re: San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more	islander	Sat Aug 16 2003 11:35 AM
Hey Islander	Steve-unplugged	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:44 PM
Re: Hey Islander	Carl	Sat Aug 16 2003 01:50 PM
Re: Hey Islander	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2003 03:53 PM
Re: Hey Islander	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 04:53 PM
Re: Hey Islander	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2003 01:59 PM
Re: Hey Islander	Carl	Sat Aug 16 2003 04:17 PM
Re: Hey Islander	javlin	Sat Aug 16 2003 04:30 PM
Re: Hey Islander	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2003 04:27 PM
UKMET joins GFS and Nogaps on CV train development	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 16 2003 04:39 PM
Re: UKMET joins GFS and Nogaps on CV train development	islander	Sat Aug 16 2003 06:51 PM
Re: UKMET joins GFS and Nogaps on CV train development	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 16 2003 07:04 PM
Re: UKMET joins GFS and Nogaps on CV train development	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2003 05:29 PM
more to look at	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 16 2003 06:21 PM
Re: more to look at	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 06:58 PM
Re: more to look at	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 16 2003 06:52 PM
Re: more to look at	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 08:06 PM
Re: more to look at	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2003 11:04 PM
Re: more to look at	57497479	Sun Aug 17 2003 06:48 AM
Re: more to look at	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 17 2003 07:25 AM
Re: more to look at	Cycloneye	Sun Aug 17 2003 07:52 AM
Re: more to look at	JustMe	Sun Aug 17 2003 09:30 AM
less to look at	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 16 2003 11:13 PM
Re: less to look at	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 17 2003 09:40 AM
No known cure!	57497479	Sun Aug 17 2003 08:51 PM
Re: No known cure!	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 17 2003 09:07 PM
Re: No known cure!	57497479	Sun Aug 17 2003 10:30 PM
Re: less to look at	Mary K.	Sun Aug 17 2003 11:57 AM
Re: less to look at	stormchazer	Sun Aug 17 2003 02:01 PM
Re: less to look at	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 17 2003 10:29 AM
Re: less to look at	Mary K.	Sun Aug 17 2003 10:38 AM
18z GFS	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 16 2003 08:51 PM
Re: 18z GFS	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 09:02 PM
Re: 18z GFS	squirralee	Sat Aug 16 2003 10:49 PM
Re: 18z GFS	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 11:36 PM
Re: 18z GFS	squirralee	Sun Aug 17 2003 10:58 AM
Cape Verde Thoughts...	Kevin	Sat Aug 16 2003 09:23 PM
Re: Cape Verde Thoughts...	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 09:46 PM
Erika... i was a little off :)	Rich B	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:56 PM
Re: San Juan NWS discussion about atlantic wave and more	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 12:09 PM
erika verification, waves	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 16 2003 08:50 AM
Re: erika verification, waves	57497479	Sat Aug 16 2003 09:35 AM
Re: erika verification, waves	Steve H.	Sat Aug 16 2003 10:00 AM
They Must Be Getting Tired at the NHC...	clyde w.	Fri Aug 15 2003 11:00 PM
Re: Track	edpro	Fri Aug 15 2003 10:41 PM
T-Numbers	Rich B	Fri Aug 15 2003 03:54 PM
Re: (1) eye forming? too early to tell with certainty (2) vortex message	Brad in Miami	Fri Aug 15 2003 01:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Jamie-on-dabyu	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Jamie-on-dabyu	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:47 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Shan	Fri Aug 15 2003 01:09 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Steve	Fri Aug 15 2003 07:58 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Fri Aug 15 2003 09:49 AM
what to do with erika..	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 15 2003 10:43 AM
Re: what to do with erika..	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 15 2003 10:45 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Fri Aug 15 2003 02:04 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Fri Aug 15 2003 02:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:34 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Steve	Thu Aug 14 2003 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 15 2003 05:22 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	57497479	Fri Aug 15 2003 06:12 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 15 2003 05:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	57497479	Fri Aug 15 2003 06:11 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 15 2003 06:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	stormchazer	Fri Aug 15 2003 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Brad in Miami	Fri Aug 15 2003 07:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Jamie-on-dabyu	Fri Aug 15 2003 08:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	stormchazer	Fri Aug 15 2003 09:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	stormchazer	Fri Aug 15 2003 09:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 15 2003 08:46 PM
An Eye Forming?	recmod	Fri Aug 15 2003 08:59 PM
Re: An Eye Forming?	Lisa NC	Fri Aug 15 2003 09:14 PM
Re: An Eye Forming?	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 15 2003 09:08 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Rich B	Fri Aug 15 2003 06:49 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	stormchazer	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Alan	Thu Aug 14 2003 09:06 PM
Bouy reading	Robert	Thu Aug 14 2003 10:03 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	javlin	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf	Alex	Thu Aug 14 2003 08:17 PM

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