this isn't a complete certainty, but based on ridge strength and model support across the board, i'd throw the dinero on the brownsville area. intensity probably low, any subtle changes to the track and speed should occur close to landfall and not play a great deal into what the end result of erika is. if we wake up tomorrow to a sub-1000mb system then that's good cause for worry, as fast moving storms under favorable conditions can sometimes intensify quite rapidly. anybody remember a certain storm that came straight west into south florida 11 yrs ago? it was moving quite fast, and went from t.s. to cat 5 in about 48hrs. so it's not expected, but not impossible either that erika becomes mean.
bay of campeche system looked nice as it went inland earlier. sort of thing that would have developed if it wasn't inland instantly.
not so sure about what the carib wave bastardi is alluding to will be.. see some puffy, healthy type convection just east of the islands and won't can the idea, but it has to work its way up from nothing.
sw caribbean blowup today is looking decent at this point, but resembles yesterday's BOC interest.. probably more of an eastpac worry.
28/50.. same sort of system as the one that spawned erika, just not as energetic or in a great environment. yet, it looks better than yesterday.. not much of a development threat but not a definite non-player.
wave i couldn't discern yesterday leads the newly emerged one, around 33w with its greatest area of turning up around 23n. over cool waters but heading for warmer ones.. a testament to the strength of the monsoon that it's so high in latitude.
new wave around 20w.. some models smiling at the prodigious wave/low combo.. with its impressive convection that hasn't all collapsed once offshore. low in latitude as well, and the harrying fast trades don't look to run this prospect to death. so, as with last night's idea, maybe something to follow up erika is in the works.
well, with that huge post and all the areas of interest.. season must be about to really kick off. 2003 active season, here we go.
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