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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge
      Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM

Maybe I can help.

A lot of the question surrounding the track of the storm, and the cause of the GFDL bending westward, have been directly related to how Irene interacts with the trough over the northern US.

There are two thoughts on this: (1) the trough will "suck" Irene toward it and (2) the trough will not affect Irene much. GFDL is taking much more of the 1st thought while other models are running more with #2.

I don't know enough about how these sorts of upper air dynamics play out to tell you which is more likely, but from what I've read #1 is definitely capable of happening, but no one really knows if it will. From what I can tell, there is a lot of blind throwing of darts at dart boards about which scenario will actually happen.

Official forecasts are tracking more with #2, and as seen over the past day the models that have been trending toward #2 are more closely aligned with the actual track Irene has taken. However, there is no guarantee that that trend will continue as Irene draws closer to the trough.

A couple things about the GFDL and GFDN models: These models are based on global models. The GFDL uses the AVN while the GFDN uses the NOGAPS. Neither the AVN nor the NOGAPS is showing the westward jog, even though over the past two days the GFDL/N have both been showing westward jogs. Given that the GFDL/N are regional models with boundary conditions determined by the global model output, it is possible that they are developing the trough differently from the global models. Really hard to tell, though, with the output data available to the public.

Given the track record of the GFDL in past storms, I never dismiss that model. It is right a surprising amount of the time (though I have also seen it be very wrong). Therefore one must realistically consider that the jogs seen in the various Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab models are possible (this includes GFDL, GFDN, GFDT, GFDI, GFNI, and GFTI). BTW, anyone know what global model the T variant is based on? (FYI: the GF*I models are the runs that focus on intensity over position; while the GFD* runs focus on position over intensity.)

Hope this helps answer your question!

Ed Dunham or Clark Evans would be able to much better explain this than me!

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 27 2011 12:50 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene Conditions/Observations in Your Area MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge RevUp   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge BryanG   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Floridacane   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge cjzydeco   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge peteferr   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* GlenJohnson   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Thu Aug 25 2011 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TallyBob   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:02 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 18 2011 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 18 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cooper13   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:55 AM
. * * Abaco Bev   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Abaco MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cguhr3   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Wed Aug 24 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Rob1966   Wed Aug 24 2011 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Aug 20 2011 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 20 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Edski   Sat Aug 20 2011 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2011 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 AM

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