Thanks, Random Chaos! That answer helps a good bit.
As I understood, both GFDL and HWRF are regional models that get their boundary conditions from the same GFS global model. GFDL is clearly reacting to something that HWRF is not. How the models calculate the interaction with that trough forming in the Great Lakes region must be the issue. The trough is moving across within the common westerly flow and it would appear from the NHC forecast track and discussion that the resident expertise there has largely dismissed much direct influence of the trough on Irene's track and weighted heavily toward steady movement with the westerlies themselves.
Edit 10:00 EDT -- looks like GFDL is now giving up the jog and coming back toward the others.
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