Chances for tropical cyclone development have been increased to 70%.
On the GFS, part of the reason for the additional appearance of a more westward movement with time has to do with the model resolution itself. When you go from the fine resolution model output to the course resolution output beyond 192 hours the storms will often appear to have a more northerly component - but its usually just a byproduct of the course resolution. On the next model run you have 6 more hours of fine resolution output, so the track seems like it is continuing more westward (and in fact, it is). For this reason (and others) I just don't pay much attention to the GFS beyond 192 hours (actually, a lot less than that for those 'other reasons'). Cheers, ED
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