MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic
Mon Aug 29 2011 06:38 AM
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Update - Wednesday August 31st, 11PM EDT
With sustained winds of 75mph, Katia is now a hurricane - located over a thousand miles to the east of the Leeward Islands and moving to the west northwest at 20mph. Central pressure is now down to 987MB. The forecast reasoning has not changed and Katia is expected to become a major hurricane in 3 days as the storm continues to move to the WNW. Katia is expected to slow down late in the forecast period and take more of a turn toward the northwest.
Invest 93L in the Gulf has a high chance for additional development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as upper air conditions slowly improve and folks along the northern Gulf coast need to closely monitor this potential trouble spot.
ED
Update - Wednesday August 31st, 4PM EDT
The area in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has been designated as Invest 93L moving to the west northwest at about 15mph. NHC probability for additional development now at 30 percent.
ED
2:30PM Update 30 August 2011
Katia is slowly strengthening in the Atlantic, thoughts on the future track have not changed as of yet.
Also an area in the northwest Caribbean may cross over the Yucatan and form into something later this week. It's important to watch this system in the western Gulf, as things here could happen quite fast. It is not an invest area as of yet. Those in Northern Mexico and the Northwest Gulf may want to watch this system. It currently has a 10% chance to develop over the next 48 hours.
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
{{TexasGulfRadar}}
7AM Update 30 August 2011
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning around 5AM, as it continues to move fairly fast to the west northwest. It is forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday, but is forecast to be well northeast of the Leeward islands in the Caribbean. It is still worth watching in the Caribbean to see if it remains on the left side of the forecast cone, but odds do not favor that happen.
Current long range models have it recurving before the United States, but may bring it near Bermuda, or between Bermuda and the US. Katia is still very far out so trends should be monitored over the next week or so.
The final advisory on Jose was issued yesterday.
11PM Update 29 August 2011
No upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia just yet tonight, but it's really only a matter of time. TWELVE is arguably ever-so-close to being "there," thus likely this conservative stance by NHC will hold just until a little more data comes in, as TD12 is in a favorable environment for further development.
One change worth noting, the future track for TWELVE is looking a little more concerning tonight. Indications are that the expected opening in the ridge to its north may not last, and such a setup could keep TWELVE continuing on a more westerly course than earlier model runs suggested. However, it is far too early to take to the bank anything more than three or four days out on this system. We will have better model runs if and should Recon fly in.
Ciel
9PM Update 29 August 2011
Based on best track data, and Dvorak T numbers, it appears Tropical Depression 12 will be named Tropical Storm Katia at 11PM tonight.
Thankfully, odds currently favor it recurving out to sea as it is gaining latitude already. Katia is the name that replaced Katrina on this year's list. However, this is by no means a sure thing at this time, there will be time to watch this system over the next week.
Original Update
Irene's last NHC advisory was issued at 11pm last night, ending a very long wait and see period with Irene. Irene did cause damage, sometimes severe, but not in the areas that the media was expecting. The surge was very strong in North Carolina, the flooding rains in Vermont, upstate New York, and parts of western Massachusetts and New Hampshire were record levels, the power outages were widespread. Irene for the most part was more a major annoyance than major destruction, which is what was expected after the system's core collapsed shortly after the run through the Bahamas
Intensity forecasting remains weak, but the short-mid range track forecast was very good, and solidified fairly well once Irene passed Hispaniola. Models picked up the shift back west, but not as large as it wound up being (to head up over upstate New York and Vermont)
People with outages will gradually be regaining power over the next week or so.
Jose continues to move out to sea, and is expected to go post tropical fairly soon.
Tropical Depression twelve has formed in the far eastern Atlantic from what was 92L, it is expected to head generally west or west northwest. Although there is some time for it to change, odds favor the system recurving well before the US. The eastern Caribbean will need to watch, but it is likely to stay north of those islands as well.
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Novec/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
{{StormLinks|Katia|12|12|2011|2|Katia}}
{{StormLinks|93L|93|13|2011|1|93L (Gulf Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|14|2011|3|94L}}
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 01 2011 12:25 PM)
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